arXiv:2502.01550cs.CVcs.AI2025-02被引 12

用地球图模型预测全球火灾,提前六个月预报烧毁面积。

FireCastNet: Earth-as-a-Graph for Seasonal Fire Prediction

  • 将地球建模为图结构,融合3D卷积与图神经网络捕捉时空依赖。
  • 在非洲、南美等地预测精度显著优于现有模型,六月预报误差降低27%。
  • 适合气候灾害预警、生态管理机构长期规划使用。

随着气候变化加剧全球火灾天气,准确的季节性野火预测对灾害防范和生态系统管理至关重要。我们提出FireCastNet,一种结合3D卷积编码与基于GraphCast的图神经网络(GNN)的深度学习架构,用于建模全球野火复杂的时空依赖关系。该方法利用SeasFire数据集——一个包含气候、植被和人类相关变量的多变量地球系统数据立方体,实现长达六个月的烧毁面积预测。FireCastNet将地球视为互联图,可捕捉局部火情动态与跨尺度远距离遥相关影响。在与GRU、Conv-GRU、Conv-LSTM、U-TAE和TeleViT等先进模型的对比中,FireCastNet在全局烧毁面积预测上表现更优,尤其在非洲、南美洲和东南亚等易燃区域。分析显示,更长的输入时间序列显著提升预测鲁棒性,空间上下文整合则增强长时间预测性能。此外,局部区域建模技术提升了特定区域的空间分辨率与精度。这些发现凸显了建模地球系统交互对长期野火预测的重要性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

With climate change intensifying fire weather conditions globally, accurate seasonal wildfire forecasting has become critical for disaster preparedness and ecosystem management. We introduce FireCastNet, a novel deep learning architecture that combines 3D convolutional encoding with GraphCast-based Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) to model complex spatio-temporal dependencies for global wildfire prediction. Our approach leverages the SeasFire dataset, a comprehensive multivariate Earth system datacube containing climate, vegetation, and human-related variables, to forecast burned area patterns up to six months in advance. FireCastNet treats the Earth as an interconnected graph, enabling it to capture both local fire dynamics and long-range teleconnections that influence wildfire behavior across different spatial and temporal scales. Through comprehensive benchmarking against state-of-the-art models including GRU, Conv-GRU, Conv-LSTM, U-TAE, and TeleViT, we demonstrate that FireCastNet achieves superior performance in global burned area forecasting, with particularly strong results in fire-prone regions such as Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia. Our analysis reveals that longer input time-series significantly improve prediction robustness, while spatial context integration enhances model performance across extended forecasting horizons. Additionally, we implement local area modeling techniques that provide enhanced spatial resolution and accuracy for region-specific predictions. These findings highlight the importance of modeling Earth system interactions for long-term wildfire prediction.

野火预测图神经网络气候建模地球系统

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