将决策树规则融入神经网络,提升交通需求预测的准确性和可解释性。
Neurosymbolic AI for Travel Demand Prediction: Integrating Decision Tree Rules into Neural Networks
- 用决策树提取可解释的规则,作为额外特征输入神经网络。
- 在多个指标上优于纯数据模型,细粒度规则降低误差。
- 适合需要透明决策过程的交通规划与政策制定者。
交通需求预测对优化交通规划、资源配置和基础设施建设至关重要,有助于实现高效出行与经济可持续发展。本文提出一种神经符号人工智能框架,将基于决策树(DT)的符号规则与神经网络(NN)结合,兼顾符号推理的可解释性与神经学习的预测能力。该框架融合地理空间、经济及出行数据,构建全面特征集;利用决策树提取关键模式的可解释if-then规则,并将其作为附加特征输入神经网络以增强预测性能。实验表明,加入符号规则后的数据集在均方误差(MAE)、R²及通勤者共现部分(CPC)等指标上持续优于独立数据集。在更细粒度方差阈值(如0.0001)下选择的规则能更好捕捉细微关系,降低预测误差并符合实际通勤模式。该神经符号方法实现了预测准确性与可解释性的双重提升。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Travel demand prediction is crucial for optimizing transportation planning, resource allocation, and infrastructure development, ensuring efficient mobility and economic sustainability. This study introduces a Neurosymbolic Artificial Intelligence (Neurosymbolic AI) framework that integrates decision tree (DT)-based symbolic rules with neural networks (NNs) to predict travel demand, leveraging the interpretability of symbolic reasoning and the predictive power of neural learning. The framework utilizes data from diverse sources, including geospatial, economic, and mobility datasets, to build a comprehensive feature set. DTs are employed to extract interpretable if-then rules that capture key patterns, which are then incorporated as additional features into a NN to enhance its predictive capabilities. Experimental results show that the combined dataset, enriched with symbolic rules, consistently outperforms standalone datasets across multiple evaluation metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), \(R^2\), and Common Part of Commuters (CPC). Rules selected at finer variance thresholds (e.g., 0.0001) demonstrate superior effectiveness in capturing nuanced relationships, reducing prediction errors, and aligning with observed commuter patterns. By merging symbolic and neural learning paradigms, this Neurosymbolic approach achieves both interpretability and accuracy.
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