arXiv:2502.02499cs.LG2025-02被引 3

用深度生成模型快速生成物理一致的海洋状态,助力气候预测。

Learning to generate physical ocean states: Towards hybrid climate modeling

  • 用深度生成模型生成符合物理规律的海洋初始态
  • 相比传统方法减少计算耗时,降低模拟漂移
  • 适合需要高效且稳定气候模拟的研究者

海洋环流模型需大量计算资源才能达到平衡状态,而深度学习代理模型虽能快速预测,却缺乏物理可解释性和长期稳定性,难以支持气候敏感性分析及突变机制研究(如临界点)。本文提出融合二者优势的混合方法:利用深度生成模型生成物理一致的海洋状态,作为气候投影的初始条件。通过物理指标与数值实验评估该方法的可行性,并强调生成过程中施加物理约束的重要性。尽管训练数据来自理想化数值模拟,但该混合策略结合了深度学习的计算效率与数值模型的物理准确性,可有效降低气候模型达平衡状态的计算负担,并通过减少基线模拟中的漂移,降低气候预测不确定性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Ocean General Circulation Models require extensive computational resources to reach equilibrium states, while deep learning emulators, despite offering fast predictions, lack the physical interpretability and long-term stability necessary for climate scientists to understand climate sensitivity (to greenhouse gas emissions) and mechanisms of abrupt % variability such as tipping points. We propose to take the best from both worlds by leveraging deep generative models to produce physically consistent oceanic states that can serve as initial conditions for climate projections. We assess the viability of this hybrid approach through both physical metrics and numerical experiments, and highlight the benefits of enforcing physical constraints during generation. Although we train here on ocean variables from idealized numerical simulations, we claim that this hybrid approach, combining the computational efficiency of deep learning with the physical accuracy of numerical models, can effectively reduce the computational burden of running climate models to equilibrium, and reduce uncertainties in climate projections by minimizing drifts in baseline simulations.

气候建模生成模型物理约束

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