arXiv:2502.02567cs.LGcs.AI2025-02被引 2

提出新公平性准则,提升生存分析在关键时间点的预测公正性。

Fairness in Survival Analysis: A Novel Conditional Mutual Information Augmentation Approach

  • 基于条件互信息设计公平正则化项,结合删失数据增强方法
  • 在多个数据集上显著降低预测偏差,同时保持高精度
  • 适用于Cox、AFT等主流生存模型,适合医疗金融等场景

生存分析是预测事件发生时间的重要工具,广泛应用于医疗、刑事司法和金融等领域。与分类任务类似,其预测结果可能对弱势群体产生偏见,这通常源于数据或算法中的固有偏差。尽管已有研究关注生存分析中的公平性问题,但现有方法常忽视在预定义评估时间点上的预测公平性,而这类时间点在现实决策中至关重要。为此,本文提出一种新的公平性概念:生存分析中的等几率公平(EO),强调在特定时间点上的预测公正性。为实现该目标,我们提出条件互信息增强(CMIA)方法,包含基于条件互信息的新型公平正则化项和创新的删失数据增强技术。该方法能有效平衡预测准确率与公平性,适用于多种生存模型。我们在三个不同应用领域对CMIA进行了评估,结果表明其在多个数据集和模型(如线性Cox、深度AFT)上持续降低预测差异,且显著优于其他先进方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Survival analysis, a vital tool for predicting the time to event, has been used in many domains such as healthcare, criminal justice, and finance. Like classification tasks, survival analysis can exhibit bias against disadvantaged groups, often due to biases inherent in data or algorithms. Several studies in both the IS and CS communities have attempted to address fairness in survival analysis. However, existing methods often overlook the importance of prediction fairness at pre-defined evaluation time points, which is crucial in real-world applications where decision making often hinges on specific time frames. To address this critical research gap, we introduce a new fairness concept: equalized odds (EO) in survival analysis, which emphasizes prediction fairness at pre-defined time points. To achieve the EO fairness in survival analysis, we propose a Conditional Mutual Information Augmentation (CMIA) approach, which features a novel fairness regularization term based on conditional mutual information and an innovative censored data augmentation technique. Our CMIA approach can effectively balance prediction accuracy and fairness, and it is applicable to various survival models. We evaluate the CMIA approach against several state-of-the-art methods within three different application domains, and the results demonstrate that CMIA consistently reduces prediction disparity while maintaining good accuracy and significantly outperforms the other competing methods across multiple datasets and survival models (e.g., linear COX, deep AFT).

生存分析公平性条件互信息医疗预测

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