arXiv:2502.03393cs.LG2025-02KDD被引 5

用历史疫情数据预训练模型,提升新爆发预测能力。

Pre-training Epidemic Time Series Forecasters with Compartmental Prototypes

  • 将疫情动态建模为潜变量的组合,学习可迁移的流行病原型。
  • 在17种疾病上零样本预测表现超越主流基线。
  • 适合需要快速响应新疫情的研究者与公共卫生部门。

精准的疫情预测对疫情应对至关重要,但现有数据驱动模型通常脆弱。它们多针对单一病原体训练,在新疫情中因数据稀少而失效,且在病毒变异或干预措施导致分布变化时表现不佳。然而,数十年的监测数据及多种疾病的分层模型蕴含丰富可迁移知识。为此,我们提出首个开源预训练疫情预测模型CAPE。不同于忽略流行病学特性的时序基础模型,CAPE将疫情动态建模为潜变量的分层群体状态组合,称为“分层原型”。它直接从大规模模拟数据中学习灵活的原型字典,使每次疫情可表示为随时间变化的混合结构,连接观测感染数与潜变量群体状态。为增强泛化能力,CAPE在预训练中采用下一个词预测范式,并引入轻量级流行病感知正则化,使学习到的原型符合流行病学语义。在涵盖17种疾病的综合基准测试中,CAPE实现显著优于强基线的零样本预测性能。本工作为既可迁移又具流行病学基础的预训练模型提供了原则性路径。代码已开源:https://github.com/nuuuh/CAPE。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurate epidemic forecasting is crucial for outbreak preparedness, but existing data-driven models are often brittle. Typically trained on a single pathogen, they struggle with data scarcity during new outbreaks and fail under distribution shifts caused by viral evolution or interventions. However, decades of surveillance data and the design of various compartmental models from diverse diseases offer an untapped source of transferable knowledge. To leverage the collective lessons from history, we propose CAPE, the first open-source pre-trained model for epidemic forecasting. Unlike existing time series foundation models that overlook epidemiological challenges, CAPE models epidemic dynamics as mixtures of latent compartmental population states, termed \textit{compartmental prototypes}. It models a flexible dictionary of compartment prototypes directly from a large collection of simulation data, enabling each outbreak to be expressed as a time-varying mixture that links observed infections to latent population states. To promote robust generalization, CAPE adopts the next-token-prediction paradigm during pre-training with lightweight epidemic-aware regularization that aligns the learned prototypes with epidemiological semantics. On a comprehensive benchmark spanning 17 diseases, CAPE significantly outperforms strong baselines with zero-shot forecasting. This work represents a principled step toward pre-trained epidemic models that are both transferable and epidemiologically grounded. We provide our code in: https://github.com/nuuuh/CAPE.

疫情预测预训练模型分层模型

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