用物理规律提升神经网络对气温的长期预测能力。
PINT: Physics-Informed Neural Time Series Models with Applications to Long-term Inference on WeatherBench 2m-Temperature Data
- 将简谐振子方程作为先验嵌入RNN/LSTM/GRU,约束时间序列模型。
- 仅用前90天数据,成功预测未来两年气温,误差低于线性基准。
- 适合气候建模、长期预测场景,结果可解释性强。
本文提出PINT(物理信息神经时间序列模型),通过在神经时间序列模型中引入物理约束,提升对复杂动态的捕捉能力。以ERA5 WeatherBench数据集中的2米气温数据为对象,聚焦长期预报。PINT将简谐振子方程作为物理先验,将其周期性动态嵌入RNN、LSTM和GRU架构中。该方程的解析解(正弦与余弦函数)使我们能严格评估物理约束带来的收益。通过与基于其精确解的线性回归基线对比,量化了物理原理融入数据驱动模型的影响。不同于依赖未来观测的传统模型,PINT专为实际预报设计:仅使用前90天观测数据,即可迭代预测接下来两年。在WeatherBench数据集上的实验表明,PINT具备良好泛化能力,能准确捕捉周期趋势,并符合物理规律。本研究展示了物理信息神经模型在机器学习与可解释气候应用间的桥梁潜力。代码与数据已公开于GitHub:https://github.com/KV-Park。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper introduces PINT (Physics-Informed Neural Time Series Models), a framework that integrates physical constraints into neural time series models to improve their ability to capture complex dynamics. We apply PINT to the ERA5 WeatherBench dataset, focusing on long-term forecasting of 2m-temperature data. PINT incorporates the Simple Harmonic Oscillator Equation as a physics-informed prior, embedding its periodic dynamics into RNN, LSTM, and GRU architectures. This equation's analytical solutions (sine and cosine functions) facilitate rigorous evaluation of the benefits of incorporating physics-informed constraints. By benchmarking against a linear regression baseline derived from its exact solutions, we quantify the impact of embedding physical principles in data-driven models. Unlike traditional time series models that rely on future observations, PINT is designed for practical forecasting. Using only the first 90 days of observed data, it iteratively predicts the next two years, addressing challenges posed by limited real-time updates. Experiments on the WeatherBench dataset demonstrate PINT's ability to generalize, capture periodic trends, and align with physical principles. This study highlights the potential of physics-informed neural models in bridging machine learning and interpretable climate applications. Our models and datasets are publicly available on GitHub: https://github.com/KV-Park.
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