arXiv:2502.04233cs.LGcs.SI2025-02被引 8

用图模型预测航班因盘旋等待导致的延误,提升航空调度效率。

Graph machine learning for flight delay prediction due to holding manouver

  • 将航班延误建模为有向图的边特征预测问题,融合网络中心性等图特征。
  • 基于图特征的CatBoost在不平衡数据上表现优于GAT,准确率更高。
  • 模型可解释性强,适合航司和空管部门用于实时延迟预警与调度优化。

因盘旋等待导致的航班延误是航空领域关键且高成本的问题,由空中交通拥堵和安全需求驱动。当飞机被指令在指定空域盘旋时,常因机场拥堵、恶劣天气或空管限制所致。本文将该延误预测建模为图机器学习问题,利用先进图学习技术捕捉空中交通网络中的复杂依赖关系。盘旋虽保障安全,但增加燃油消耗、排放及乘客不满,因此精准预测至关重要。传统机器学习模型多使用表格数据,忽视时空关联。为此,本研究将预测任务视为有向(多重)图中的边特征预测,采用结合图特征(如网络中心性、连通性)的CatBoost与擅长处理关系数据的图注意力网络(GAT)。结果表明,在该不平衡数据集上,CatBoost性能优于GAT,有效预测盘旋事件,并通过图特征重要性提供可解释性。此外,研究还开发了基于网页的工具,支持实时延迟预测模拟。该工作证明了图方法在航空预测分析中的可行性,有助于提升燃油效率、减少延误并改善乘客体验。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Flight delays due to holding maneuvers are a critical and costly phenomenon in aviation, driven by the need to manage air traffic congestion and ensure safety. Holding maneuvers occur when aircraft are instructed to circle in designated airspace, often due to factors such as airport congestion, adverse weather, or air traffic control restrictions. This study models the prediction of flight delays due to holding maneuvers as a graph problem, leveraging advanced Graph Machine Learning (Graph ML) techniques to capture complex interdependencies in air traffic networks. Holding maneuvers, while crucial for safety, cause increased fuel usage, emissions, and passenger dissatisfaction, making accurate prediction essential for operational efficiency. Traditional machine learning models, typically using tabular data, often overlook spatial-temporal relations within air traffic data. To address this, we model the problem of predicting holding as edge feature prediction in a directed (multi)graph where we apply both CatBoost, enriched with graph features capturing network centrality and connectivity, and Graph Attention Networks (GATs), which excel in relational data contexts. Our results indicate that CatBoost outperforms GAT in this imbalanced dataset, effectively predicting holding events and offering interpretability through graph-based feature importance. Additionally, we discuss the model's potential operational impact through a web-based tool that allows users to simulate real-time delay predictions. This research underscores the viability of graph-based approaches for predictive analysis in aviation, with implications for enhancing fuel efficiency, reducing delays, and improving passenger experience.

图神经网络航班预测空管优化

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