arXiv:2502.04737cs.LG2025-02KDD被引 8

通过挖掘个股与市场层面的非理性因素,提升股票收益预测准确率。

Learning Universal Multi-level Market Irrationality Factors to Improve Stock Return Forecasting

  • 构建个股理性价格,用实际价与理性价差作为非理性因子。
  • 通过自监督学习捕捉市场同步异常波动,生成市场级非理性表征。
  • 无需标签数据,适用于量化交易、金融风控等场景。

近年来,深度学习与量化交易结合取得显著成果,众多基于神经网络的股票收益预测模型能有效捕捉价格趋势、量价关系和时间变化等普遍模式。然而,市场情绪、投机行为、操纵及心理偏见等非理性因素因抽象且缺乏明确标注,在现有模型中未被充分考虑。为此,本文提出通用多层级市场非理性因子模型UMI,从个股与整体市场两个层次学习非理性特征。在个股层面,构建与真实价格共线的理性价格,其与实际价格的偏差作为反映个体非理性事件的因子;在市场层面,将股票间异常同步波动定义为非理性行为,通过子市场对比学习与市场同步性预测两项自监督任务,生成市场级非理性表示向量。该向量被用于增强股票收益预测性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Recent years have witnessed the perfect encounter of deep learning and quantitative trading has achieved great success in stock investment. Numerous deep learning-based models have been developed for forecasting stock returns, leveraging the powerful representation capabilities of neural networks to identify patterns and factors influencing stock prices. These models can effectively capture general patterns in the market, such as stock price trends, volume-price relationships, and time variations. However, the impact of special irrationality factors -- such as market sentiment, speculative behavior, market manipulation, and psychological biases -- have not been fully considered in existing deep stock forecasting models due to their relative abstraction as well as lack of explicit labels and data description. To fill this gap, we propose UMI, a Universal multi-level Market Irrationality factor model to enhance stock return forecasting. The UMI model learns factors that can reflect irrational behaviors in market from both individual stock and overall market levels. For the stock-level, UMI construct an estimated rational price for each stock, which is cointegrated with the stock's actual price. The discrepancy between the actual and the rational prices serves as a factor to indicate stock-level irrational events. Additionally, we define market-level irrational behaviors as anomalous synchronous fluctuations of stocks within a market. Using two self-supervised representation learning tasks, i.e., sub-market comparative learning and market synchronism prediction, the UMI model incorporates market-level irrationalities into a market representation vector, which is then used as the market-level irrationality factor.

股票预测非理性因子自监督学习量化交易

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