用置信预测提升电力价格预报精度,兼顾可靠性和收益。
Conformal Prediction for Electricity Price Forecasting in the Day-Ahead and Real-Time Balancing Market
- 融合分位数回归与时间序列适配的置信预测,生成更准的区间估计。
- 在日前与实时平衡市场中,预测区间覆盖率达95%以上且宽度更窄。
- 适合电力交易、储能系统运营等需要高可靠性预测的场景。
可再生能源并入电力市场加剧了价格波动与市场运行复杂性,准确可靠的电价预测对市场参与至关重要。本文探索使用置信预测(Conformal Prediction, CP)技术改进概率化电价预测,采用集成批量预测区间与序列预测置信推断方法,显著提升预测区间的有效性与可靠性。提出一种集成方法,结合分位数回归的高效性与时序适应式CP的稳健覆盖特性,在保持高覆盖率的同时实现更窄的预测区间。通过模拟储能系统交易算法验证,该方法在日前市场与实时平衡市场均带来更高的财务回报,展现出实际应用价值。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The integration of renewable energy into electricity markets poses significant challenges to price stability and increases the complexity of market operations. Accurate and reliable electricity price forecasting is crucial for effective market participation, where price dynamics can be significantly more challenging to predict. Probabilistic forecasting, through prediction intervals, efficiently quantifies the inherent uncertainties in electricity prices, supporting better decision-making for market participants. This study explores the enhancement of probabilistic price prediction using Conformal Prediction (CP) techniques, specifically Ensemble Batch Prediction Intervals and Sequential Predictive Conformal Inference. These methods provide precise and reliable prediction intervals, outperforming traditional models in validity metrics. We propose an ensemble approach that combines the efficiency of quantile regression models with the robust coverage properties of time series adapted CP techniques. This ensemble delivers both narrow prediction intervals and high coverage, leading to more reliable and accurate forecasts. We further evaluate the practical implications of CP techniques through a simulated trading algorithm applied to a battery storage system. The ensemble approach demonstrates improved financial returns in energy trading in both the Day-Ahead and Balancing Markets, highlighting its practical benefits for market participants.
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