arXiv:2502.05122stat.MLcs.LG2025-02ICML被引 6

用因果速度建模因果方向,无需假设噪声分布。

Distinguishing Cause from Effect with Causal Velocity Models

  • 将因果变量视为动态系统的时序,通过速度定义反事实轨迹。
  • 通过分数函数与速度的回归,直接推断因果方向。
  • 适用于非加性噪声场景,对模型误设敏感,适合复杂数据

双变量结构因果模型常通过在受限模型类下的拟合优度来推断因果方向。本文提出一种基于因果速度的双变量SCM参数化方法,将原因变量视为动力系统中的时间,隐式通过初值问题解定义反事实曲线。借助测度传输工具,建立了SCM与生成分布得分函数之间的唯一对应关系。基于此,构建了一个直接回归速度与得分函数的目标函数,后者可从观测数据中非参数估计。该方法扩展了传统加性或位置尺度噪声模型的限制,且无需对噪声分布做假设。当得分估计良好时,目标函数还能检测模型不可识别性和误设问题。仿真和基准实验表明,该方法在多个现有方法失败的情况下表现良好,并通过消融实验检验了对得分估计精度的敏感性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Bivariate structural causal models (SCM) are often used to infer causal direction by examining their goodness-of-fit under restricted model classes. In this paper, we describe a parametrization of bivariate SCMs in terms of a causal velocity by viewing the cause variable as time in a dynamical system. The velocity implicitly defines counterfactual curves via the solution of initial value problems where the observation specifies the initial condition. Using tools from measure transport, we obtain a unique correspondence between SCMs and the score function of the generated distribution via its causal velocity. Based on this, we derive an objective function that directly regresses the velocity against the score function, the latter of which can be estimated non-parametrically from observational data. We use this to develop a method for bivariate causal discovery that extends beyond known model classes such as additive or location scale noise, and that requires no assumptions on the noise distributions. When the score is estimated well, the objective is also useful for detecting model non-identifiability and misspecification. We present positive results in simulation and benchmark experiments where many existing methods fail, and perform ablation studies to examine the method's sensitivity to accurate score estimation.

因果推断结构模型非参数

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