arXiv:2502.05218q-fin.STcs.AI2025-02AAAI被引 17

用超图与时间对比学习挖掘隐藏因子,提升股票收益预测效果

FactorGCL: A Hypergraph-Based Factor Model with Temporal Residual Contrastive Learning for Stock Returns Prediction

  • 构建超图捕捉股票收益与因子的高阶非线性关系
  • 通过残差对比学习提取有效隐藏因子,超越现有方法
  • 适合量化投资、金融机器学习研究者参考

因子模型是经济学与金融学中的基础方法,近年来从传统人工设计因子的线性模型转向数据驱动的非线性机器学习模型,以提升有效性。然而,市场数据信噪比低,从数据中挖掘有效因子仍具挑战。本文提出一种基于超图的因子模型(FactorGCL),利用超图结构更好地捕获股票收益与因子间的高阶非线性关系。为补充人工设计的先验因子,我们设计级联残差超图架构,从去除先验因子影响后的残差信息中提取隐藏因子。此外,提出时间残差对比学习方法,通过跨时间段的个股残差信息对比,引导有效且全面的隐藏因子提取。在真实股票市场数据上的大量实验表明,FactorGCL不仅优于现有最先进方法,还能挖掘出对预测股票收益有效的隐藏因子。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

As a fundamental method in economics and finance, the factor model has been extensively utilized in quantitative investment. In recent years, there has been a paradigm shift from traditional linear models with expert-designed factors to more flexible nonlinear machine learning-based models with data-driven factors, aiming to enhance the effectiveness of these factor models. However, due to the low signal-to-noise ratio in market data, mining effective factors in data-driven models remains challenging. In this work, we propose a hypergraph-based factor model with temporal residual contrastive learning (FactorGCL) that employs a hypergraph structure to better capture high-order nonlinear relationships among stock returns and factors. To mine hidden factors that supplement human-designed prior factors for predicting stock returns, we design a cascading residual hypergraph architecture, in which the hidden factors are extracted from the residual information after removing the influence of prior factors. Additionally, we propose a temporal residual contrastive learning method to guide the extraction of effective and comprehensive hidden factors by contrasting stock-specific residual information over different time periods. Our extensive experiments on real stock market data demonstrate that FactorGCL not only outperforms existing state-of-the-art methods but also mines effective hidden factors for predicting stock returns.

因子模型超图网络量化投资

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