arXiv:2502.05878cs.CL2025-02被引 12

用领域专用检索增强金融时序预测,提升股价走势判断准确率。

Retrieval-augmented Large Language Models for Financial Time Series Forecasting

  • 设计专用于金融的检索器FinSeer,结合大模型反馈筛选关键时间序列片段。
  • 在真实股票数据上使预测准确率显著优于传统方法和通用检索。
  • 适合量化交易、风险管理和金融算法研究者参考使用。

准确预测股价变动对投资决策至关重要,涵盖算法交易与风险管理等应用。然而,从噪声丰富的金融时间序列中提取细微但高影响的模式极具挑战,传统基于通用语言模型或简单数值相似性的检索方法难以捕捉复杂的时序依赖与情境信号。为此,我们提出首个针对金融时序预测的检索增强生成框架FinSrag,其核心是新设计的领域专用检索器FinSeer。FinSeer通过大模型反馈优化候选选择机制,并采用相似性驱动的训练目标,精准对齐查询与历史关键序列,有效过滤金融噪声。该检索结果被输入经过10亿参数微调的StockLLM生成模型,实现预测。此外,我们构建了包含更广泛金融指标的新检索语料库,揭示此前被忽略的市场动态。实验表明,相比现有文本检索器和传统距离检索方法,FinSeer显著提升了StockLLM的预测性能,验证了领域专用检索框架在处理金融时序复杂性中的重要性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Accurately forecasting stock price movements is critical for informed financial decision-making, supporting applications ranging from algorithmic trading to risk management. However, this task remains challenging due to the difficulty of retrieving subtle yet high-impact patterns from noisy financial time-series data, where conventional retrieval methods, whether based on generic language models or simplistic numeric similarity, often fail to capture the intricate temporal dependencies and context-specific signals essential for precise market prediction. To bridge this gap, we introduce FinSrag, the first retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) framework with a novel domain-specific retriever FinSeer for financial time-series forecasting. FinSeer leverages a candidate selection mechanism refined by LLM feedback and a similarity-driven training objective to align queries with historically influential sequences while filtering out financial noise. Such training enables FinSeer to identify the most relevant time-series data segments for downstream forecasting tasks, unlike embedding or distance-based retrieval methods used in existing RAG frameworks. The retrieved patterns are then fed into StockLLM, a 1B-parameter LLM fine-tuned for stock movement prediction, which serves as the generative backbone. Beyond the retrieval method, we enrich the retrieval corpus by curating new datasets that integrate a broader set of financial indicators, capturing previously overlooked market dynamics. Experiments demonstrate that FinSeer outperforms existing textual retrievers and traditional distance-based retrieval approaches in enhancing the prediction accuracy of StockLLM, underscoring the importance of domain-specific retrieval frameworks in handling the complexity of financial time-series data.

金融预测检索增强时序建模大模型

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