融合遥感与气象数据,用深度集成模型精准预测作物产量
Multi-modal Data Fusion and Deep Ensemble Learning for Accurate Crop Yield Prediction
- 用15个关键特征融合雷达、光学卫星和气象数据
- 模型平均误差341公斤/公顷,优于此前顶尖模型
- 适合农业监测、智慧农场等场景的从业者参考
本研究提出RicEns-Net,一种基于多模态数据融合的深度集成模型,用于精准预测作物产量。融合了来自Sentinel-1、2、3卫星的合成孔径雷达(SAR)与光学遥感数据,以及地表温度、降雨量等气象观测数据。数据源自埃森哲(EY)2023年开放科学挑战赛。通过数据工程从超过100个潜在变量中筛选出15个最具信息量的特征,有效缓解高维问题。RicEns-Net在深度集成框架中融合多种机器学习算法,充分发挥各自优势。实验表明,该模型平均绝对误差(MAE)达341公斤/公顷,约相当于区域最低平均产量的5-6%,显著优于此前最先进的模型,包括在EY挑战赛中表现优异的方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This study introduces RicEns-Net, a novel Deep Ensemble model designed to predict crop yields by integrating diverse data sources through multimodal data fusion techniques. The research focuses specifically on the use of synthetic aperture radar (SAR), optical remote sensing data from Sentinel 1, 2, and 3 satellites, and meteorological measurements such as surface temperature and rainfall. The initial field data for the study were acquired through Ernst & Young's (EY) Open Science Challenge 2023. The primary objective is to enhance the precision of crop yield prediction by developing a machine-learning framework capable of handling complex environmental data. A comprehensive data engineering process was employed to select the most informative features from over 100 potential predictors, reducing the set to 15 features from 5 distinct modalities. This step mitigates the ``curse of dimensionality" and enhances model performance. The RicEns-Net architecture combines multiple machine learning algorithms in a deep ensemble framework, integrating the strengths of each technique to improve predictive accuracy. Experimental results demonstrate that RicEns-Net achieves a mean absolute error (MAE) of 341 kg/Ha (roughly corresponds to 5-6\% of the lowest average yield in the region), significantly exceeding the performance of previous state-of-the-art models, including those developed during the EY challenge.
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