用在线学习动态融合多个轨迹预测模型,提升自动驾驶泛化能力。
Online Aggregation of Trajectory Predictors
- 将不同预测模型视为专家,通过概率混合在线调整权重。
- 在真实轨迹反馈下优化混合策略,适应动态环境变化。
- 适用于跨城市部署,显著提升模型在未知场景的鲁棒性。
轨迹预测是安全高效自动驾驶的核心任务。尽管已有多种方法(如基于规则或不同架构与数据集训练的模型),但其性能常受部署环境影响(如规则是否贴合实际,测试数据是否匹配训练数据)。本文提出一种轻量级、模型无关的在线聚合方法,借鉴在线凸优化理论但突破凸性和平稳性限制。将每个轨迹预测器视为“专家”,维护一个概率向量以加权融合各专家输出。关键在于利用下一时刻的真实行为作为在线数据,构建可非凸、非平稳的损失函数,其梯度引导概率向量向最优专家组合逼近。我们在NUSCENES数据集上训练的城市间模型进行聚合,结果表明该方法在部署于分布外的LYFT数据集时,表现不逊于甚至优于任一单一模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Trajectory prediction, the task of forecasting future agent behavior from past data, is central to safe and efficient autonomous driving. A diverse set of methods (e.g., rule-based or learned with different architectures and datasets) have been proposed, yet it is often the case that the performance of these methods is sensitive to the deployment environment (e.g., how well the design rules model the environment, or how accurately the test data match the training data). Building upon the principled theory of online convex optimization but also going beyond convexity and stationarity, we present a lightweight and model-agnostic method to aggregate different trajectory predictors online. We propose treating each individual trajectory predictor as an "expert" and maintaining a probability vector to mix the outputs of different experts. Then, the key technical approach lies in leveraging online data -- the true agent behavior to be revealed at the next timestep -- to form a convex-or-nonconvex, stationary-or-dynamic loss function whose gradient steers the probability vector towards choosing the best mixture of experts. We instantiate this method to aggregate trajectory predictors trained on different cities in the NUSCENES dataset and show that it performs just as well, if not better than, any singular model, even when deployed on the out-of-distribution LYFT dataset.
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