用归因方法解析格陵兰冰盖融雪异常,揭示模型差异与驱动因素。
Advancing climate model interpretability: Feature attribution for Arctic melt anomalies
- 提出无监督反事实归因法,分析ERA5与GEMB模型的融雪异常
- 验证结果与实测数据一致,识别出关键气候驱动因子
- 适合气候模型可解释性研究者及极地变化分析人员
本研究聚焦提升气候模型中极地融雪异常的可解释性,深化对北极融雪动态的理解。格陵兰冰盖表面快速融化和淡水径流增加显著贡献于全球海平面上升,理解其融雪机制至关重要。广泛用于极地气候研究的ERA5再分析数据集涵盖丰富气候变量,但其融雪模型采用能量不平衡方法,可能简化了表面融化的复杂过程。相比之下,冰川能量与质量平衡(GEMB)模型引入了积雪累积、粒雪致密化及融水下渗/再冻结等物理过程,更精细地刻画表面融雪动态。本文基于特征归因方法,分析格陵兰冰盖表面融雪异常事件在ERA5与GEMB模型中的表现。提出一种新型无监督反事实归因方法,用于解析检测到的异常。异常检测结果通过MEaSUREs地面真值数据验证,归因结果与XGBoost、Shapley值和随机森林等主流特征排序方法对比评估。该框架成功揭示各模型背后的物理机制及驱动融雪异常的关键气候特征,证明其在提升气候模型异常可解释性方面的有效性,并推进对北极融雪动力学的认知。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The focus of our work is improving the interpretability of anomalies in climate models and advancing our understanding of Arctic melt dynamics. The Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets are experiencing rapid surface melting and increased freshwater runoff, contributing significantly to global sea level rise. Understanding the mechanisms driving snowmelt in these regions is crucial. ERA5, a widely used reanalysis dataset in polar climate studies, offers extensive climate variables and global data assimilation. However, its snowmelt model employs an energy imbalance approach that may oversimplify the complexity of surface melt. In contrast, the Glacier Energy and Mass Balance (GEMB) model incorporates additional physical processes, such as snow accumulation, firn densification, and meltwater percolation/refreezing, providing a more detailed representation of surface melt dynamics. In this research, we focus on analyzing surface snowmelt dynamics of the Greenland Ice Sheet using feature attribution for anomalous melt events in ERA5 and GEMB models. We present a novel unsupervised attribution method leveraging counterfactual explanation method to analyze detected anomalies in ERA5 and GEMB. Our anomaly detection results are validated using MEaSUREs ground-truth data, and the attributions are evaluated against established feature ranking methods, including XGBoost, Shapley values, and Random Forest. Our attribution framework identifies the physics behind each model and the climate features driving melt anomalies. These findings demonstrate the utility of our attribution method in enhancing the interpretability of anomalies in climate models and advancing our understanding of Arctic melt dynamics.
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