用注意力机制提升供热需求预测精度,助力碳中和目标实现。
Advancing Heat Demand Forecasting with Attention Mechanisms: Opportunities and Challenges
- 将时频空间特征与注意力机制结合,捕捉复杂热需求模式。
- 多区域测试中MAE为0.105kWh,MAPE为5.4%,优于基线模型。
- 适合能源系统优化与智慧城市规划人员参考。
全球领导人与政策制定者均致力于实现净零排放目标。尽管区域供热系统(DHS)因仍依赖化石燃料而产生碳排放,但正逐步转向更可持续的实践,同时面临适应动态供需变化的挑战。随着人口需求增长及可再生能源成为供暖脱碳的核心策略,精准的需求预测愈发重要。数字化进展推动基于机器学习(ML)的解决方案成为建模复杂时间序列的标准。本文构建了一种深度学习(DL)模型,利用影响热需求的独立与相关变量分解特征,进行多步前瞻预测。模型在时频空间表示输入特征,并采用注意力机制生成高精度预测。在真实数据集上评估,该方法优于基于LSTM与CNN的基线模型。在不同供热点区域,注意力模型的均方误差(MAE)为0.105kWh(标准差0.06kWh),平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)为5.4%(标准差2.8%),优于次优模型(MAE 0.10kWh,标准差0.06kWh;MAPE 5.6%,标准差3%)。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Global leaders and policymakers are unified in their unequivocal commitment to decarbonization efforts in support of Net-Zero agreements. District Heating Systems (DHS), while contributing to carbon emissions due to the continued reliance on fossil fuels for heat production, are embracing more sustainable practices albeit with some sense of vulnerability as it could constrain their ability to adapt to dynamic demand and production scenarios. As demographic demands grow and renewables become the central strategy in decarbonizing the heating sector, the need for accurate demand forecasting has intensified. Advances in digitization have paved the way for Machine Learning (ML) based solutions to become the industry standard for modeling complex time series patterns. In this paper, we focus on building a Deep Learning (DL) model that uses deconstructed components of independent and dependent variables that affect heat demand as features to perform multi-step ahead forecasting of head demand. The model represents the input features in a time-frequency space and uses an attention mechanism to generate accurate forecasts. The proposed method is evaluated on a real-world dataset and the forecasting performance is assessed against LSTM and CNN-based forecasting models. Across different supply zones, the attention-based models outperforms the baselines quantitatively and qualitatively, with an Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.105 with a standard deviation of 0.06kW h and a Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 5.4% with a standard deviation of 2.8%, in comparison the second best model with a MAE of 0.10 with a standard deviation of 0.06kW h and a MAPE of 5.6% with a standard deviation of 3%.
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