arXiv:2502.08282cs.LGcs.AI2025-02中稿 · The 47th Annual In…被引 2

提出新方法解决多种干预与多种结果的个性化治疗效应估计问题。

Individualised Treatment Effects Estimation with Composite Treatments and Composite Outcomes

  • 用超网络动态共享不同干预和结果间的数据信息,缓解数据稀疏问题。
  • 在二元及任意复合干预与结果上,效果优于现有方法。
  • 适合医疗、政策评估等复杂多维干预场景的研究者使用。

个性化治疗效应(ITE)估计——即从观测数据中估算一组变量(称为复合干预)对一组结果变量(称为复合结果)的因果效应——是因果推断中的核心问题,广泛应用于医疗、经济、教育等领域。现有因果机器学习方法多局限于单一干预与单一结果,难以应对现实复杂场景。例如,研究心脏手术患者接受β受体阻滞剂与他汀类药物等多重干预对其房颤和院内死亡率等多重结果的影响。该领域进展受限主要因复合干预与结果的数据稀缺。为此,本文提出基于超网络的新方法H-Learner,通过在干预与结果间动态共享信息,缓解数据稀疏问题。实证分析表明,在二元及任意复合干预与结果下,该方法显著优于现有基准方法。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Estimating individualised treatment effect (ITE) -- that is the causal effect of a set of variables (also called exposures, treatments, actions, policies, or interventions), referred to as \textit{composite treatments}, on a set of outcome variables of interest, referred to as \textit{composite outcomes}, for a unit from observational data -- remains a fundamental problem in causal inference with applications across disciplines, such as healthcare, economics, education, social science, marketing, and computer science. Previous work in causal machine learning for ITE estimation is limited to simple settings, like single treatments and single outcomes. This hinders their use in complex real-world scenarios; for example, consider studying the effect of different ICU interventions, such as beta-blockers and statins for a patient admitted for heart surgery, on different outcomes of interest such as atrial fibrillation and in-hospital mortality. The limited research into composite treatments and outcomes is primarily due to data scarcity for all treatments and outcomes. To address the above challenges, we propose a novel and innovative hypernetwork-based approach, called \emph{H-Learner}, to solve ITE estimation under composite treatments and composite outcomes, which tackles the data scarcity issue by dynamically sharing information across treatments and outcomes. Our empirical analysis with binary and arbitrary composite treatments and outcomes demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach compared to existing methods.

因果推断个性化治疗多任务学习

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