arXiv:2502.08597cs.GTcs.AI2025-02被引 4

比较贝叶斯与无悔学习者在市场中的生存能力,发现低悔恨不等于存活

Markets with Heterogeneous Agents: Dynamics and Survival of Bayesian vs. No-Regret Learners

  • 用无悔学习框架连接经济学中的市场主导与悔恨最小化理论
  • 即使悔恨仅对数增长,仍可能被先验固定的贝叶斯学习者淘汰
  • 提出两类混合策略,兼顾贝叶斯的精准性与无悔学习的鲁棒性

我们研究了在随机收益资产市场中异质学习者的表现。核心是对比贝叶斯学习者与无悔学习者的竞争效果,识别各自更优的条件。我们正式建立了生存与市场主导、悔恨最小化之间的关联,弥合了经济理论与学习框架的差距。关键发现是:悔恨在市场选择中起关键作用,但低悔恨本身不足以保证生存——令人意外的是,一个悔恨仅为对数级的代理,在面对先验有限且赋予正确模型正概率的贝叶斯学习者时,仍可能被驱逐出市场。同时,我们证明贝叶斯学习高度脆弱,而无悔学习对环境知识要求较低,更具鲁棒性。基于此反差,我们提出两种简单混合策略,在引入贝叶斯更新的同时提升对分布漂移的适应性与鲁棒性,迈向‘双优’学习范式。更广泛地,本工作深化了对异质学习者动态及其对市场影响的理解。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We analyze the performance of heterogeneous learning agents in asset markets with stochastic payoffs. Our main focus is on comparing Bayesian learners and no-regret learners who compete in markets and identifying the conditions under which each approach is more effective. We formally relate the notions of survival and market dominance studied in economics and the framework of regret minimization, thereby bridging these theories. A central finding is that regret plays a key role in market selection, but low regret alone does not guarantee survival: surprisingly, an agent may achieve even logarithmic regret and yet be driven out of the market when competing against a Bayesian learner with a finite prior that assigns positive probability to the correct model. At the same time, we show that Bayesian learning is highly fragile, while no-regret learning requires less knowledge of the environment and is therefore more robust. Motivated by this contrast, we propose two simple hybrid strategies that incorporate Bayesian updates while improving robustness and adaptability to distribution shifts, taking a step toward a best-of-both-worlds learning approach. More broadly, our work contributes to the understanding of dynamics of heterogeneous learning agents and their impact on markets.

学习机制市场动态贝叶斯学习无悔学习

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