提出依赖删失机制的变分推断,提升生存分析建模精度
Censor Dependent Variational Inference
- 设计随删失情况变化的变分分布,解决传统方法偏差问题
- 在多个数据集上显著改善个体生存分布估计效果
- 适合从事医疗预测、寿命建模的研究者参考
本文系统分析了潜变量模型中用于生存分析的变分推断,指出现有方法在处理生存数据时存在关键缺陷:不当的变分分布会阻碍对事件发生时间分布的建模。证明了最优变分分布可能依赖于删失机制。为此提出删失依赖变分推断(CDVI),并设计了适用于可扩展实现的V结构变分自编码器CD-CVAE。进一步将部分现有理论与训练技术拓展至生存分析领域。大量实验验证了分析正确性,并在个体生存分布估计上取得显著改进。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This paper provides a comprehensive analysis of variational inference in latent variable models for survival analysis, emphasizing the distinctive challenges associated with applying variational methods to survival data. We identify a critical weakness in the existing methodology, demonstrating how a poorly designed variational distribution may hinder the objective of survival analysis tasks - modeling time-to-event distributions. We prove that the optimal variational distribution, which perfectly bounds the log-likelihood, may depend on the censoring mechanism. To address this issue, we propose censor-dependent variational inference (CDVI), tailored for latent variable models in survival analysis. More practically, we introduce CD-CVAE, a V-structure Variational Autoencoder (VAE) designed for the scalable implementation of CDVI. Further discussion extends some existing theories and training techniques to survival analysis. Extensive experiments validate our analysis and demonstrate significant improvements in the estimation of individual survival distributions.
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