时间序列预测中,看回窗口设置不当会误导模型比较结果。
Channel Dependence, Limited Lookback Windows, and the Simplicity of Datasets: How Biased is Time Series Forecasting?
- 按任务调优看回窗口,避免不公平对比
- 弱通道相关数据上,独立通道模型表现更好
- 强通道依赖场景下,依赖通道模型优势明显
在长期时间序列预测(LTSF)中,看回窗口是关键超参数,常被随意设定,影响模型评估的有效性。我们主张该参数需按任务调优以确保公平比较。实验表明,未调优会导致性能排名反转,尤其在单变量与多变量方法间。标准基准测试显示,通道独立(CI)模型如PatchTST表现优异。然而,分析揭示此优势主要源于数据集内通道间相关性弱及模式简单。通过格兰杰因果分析与含隐式通道关联的ODE数据集验证,在具有强内在跨通道依赖的数据上,通道依赖(CD)模型显著优于CI模型。我们提出四项建议:(i) 将看回窗口视为关键超参数进行调优;(ii) 对标准数据集,考察CI架构更有效;(iii) 利用数据集统计分析指导选择CI或CD架构;(iv) 在数据有限场景优先使用CD模型。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), the lookback window is a critical hyperparameter often set arbitrarily, undermining the validity of model evaluations. We argue that the lookback window must be tuned on a per-task basis to ensure fair comparisons. Our empirical results show that failing to do so can invert performance rankings, particularly when comparing univariate and multivariate methods. Experiments on standard benchmarks reposition Channel-Independent (CI) models, such as PatchTST, as state-of-the-art methods. However, we reveal this superior performance is largely an artifact of weak inter-channel correlations and simplicity of patterns within these specific datasets. Using Granger causality analysis and ODE datasets (with implicit channel correlations), we demonstrate that the true strength of multivariate Channel-Dependent (CD) models emerges on datasets with strong, inherent cross-channel dependencies, where they significantly outperform CI models. We conclude with four key recommendations for improving TSF research: (i) consider the lookback window as a key hyperparameter to tune, (ii) for standard datasets, examining CI architectures is advantageous, (iii) leverage statistical analysis of datasets to guide the choice between CI and CD architectures, and (iv) prefer CD models in scenarios with limited data.
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