用多模态Transformer预测地震液化,可解释且已实测验证。
Evaluating and Explaining Earthquake-Induced Liquefaction Potential through Multi-Modal Transformers
- 融合地震波、土层结构和场地特征三类数据,用Transformer并行处理。
- 跨区域验证准确率达93.75%,对2024年能登半岛地震数据也有效。
- 通过SHAP分析每项因素贡献,适合工程界快速评估多个地点。
本研究提出一种可解释的并行变压器架构,用于土壤液化预测,整合了三种不同数据流:频谱地震编码、土层结构标记化和场地特异性特征。模型基于11次重大地震中的165个案例历史数据,采用快速傅里叶变换对地震波形进行编码,并借鉴大语言模型原理对土层进行标记化处理。通过SHapley加性解释(SHAP)实现可解释性,将预测结果分解为地震特性、土体性质和场地条件的独立贡献。模型在跨区域验证集上达到93.75%的预测准确率,并通过地面运动强度与土体抗力参数的敏感性分析展现出稳健性能。特别地,对2024年能登半岛地震未见过的地震动数据的验证,确认了模型的泛化能力与实际应用价值。该方法以公开网页应用形式部署,支持对多个地点的快速同步评估。这一框架在岩土深度学习中建立了新范式,将复杂多模态分析与工程实用性结合,实现量化解释与便捷部署。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This study presents an explainable parallel transformer architecture for soil liquefaction prediction that integrates three distinct data streams: spectral seismic encoding, soil stratigraphy tokenization, and site-specific features. The architecture processes data from 165 case histories across 11 major earthquakes, employing Fast Fourier Transform for seismic waveform encoding and principles from large language models for soil layer tokenization. Interpretability is achieved through SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), which decompose predictions into individual contributions from seismic characteristics, soil properties, and site conditions. The model achieves 93.75% prediction accuracy on cross-regional validation sets and demonstrates robust performance through sensitivity analysis of ground motion intensity and soil resistance parameters. Notably, validation against previously unseen ground motion data from the 2024 Noto Peninsula earthquake confirms the model's generalization capabilities and practical utility. Implementation as a publicly accessible web application enables rapid assessment of multiple sites simultaneously. This approach establishes a new framework in geotechnical deep learning where sophisticated multi-modal analysis meets practical engineering requirements through quantitative interpretation and accessible deployment.
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