用大模型融合频域分析,提升天气预报精度与效率
ClimateLLM: Efficient Weather Forecasting via Frequency-Aware Large Language Models
- 结合傅里叶分解与大模型,协同建模时空依赖
- 在多个数据集上优于现有方法,兼具高精度与低耗时
- 适合需要快速响应极端天气的气象机构与能源管理
天气预报对公共安全、防灾减灾、农业生产与能源管理具有全球意义。尽管深度学习显著推进了天气预测,当前方法仍面临三大挑战:(i) 难以同时捕捉动态时间依赖与短期突变,导致极端天气建模困难;(ii) 训练与资源消耗大,计算成本高;(iii) 对多尺度频率适应性差,难以分离全局趋势与局部波动。为此,我们提出ClimateLLM,一种面向天气预报的基础模型。其通过跨时间-跨空间协同建模框架,融合基于傅里叶的频域分解与大语言模型(LLMs),强化时空建模能力。框架采用专家混合(MoE)机制,自适应处理不同频率分量,实现对全局信号与局部极端事件的高效处理。此外,引入跨时间-跨空间动态提示机制,使LLM能有效整合多尺度气象模式。在真实世界数据集上的大量实验表明,ClimateLLM在准确性与效率上均优于当前最优方法,为全球天气预报提供可扩展解决方案。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Weather forecasting is crucial for public safety, disaster prevention and mitigation, agricultural production, and energy management, with global relevance. Although deep learning has significantly advanced weather prediction, current methods face critical limitations: (i) they often struggle to capture both dynamic temporal dependencies and short-term abrupt changes, making extreme weather modeling difficult; (ii) they incur high computational costs due to extensive training and resource requirements; (iii) they have limited adaptability to multi-scale frequencies, leading to challenges when separating global trends from local fluctuations. To address these issues, we propose ClimateLLM, a foundation model for weather forecasting. It captures spatiotemporal dependencies via a cross-temporal and cross-spatial collaborative modeling framework that integrates Fourier-based frequency decomposition with Large Language Models (LLMs) to strengthen spatial and temporal modeling. Our framework uses a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) mechanism that adaptively processes different frequency components, enabling efficient handling of both global signals and localized extreme events. In addition, we introduce a cross-temporal and cross-spatial dynamic prompting mechanism, allowing LLMs to incorporate meteorological patterns across multiple scales effectively. Extensive experiments on real-world datasets show that ClimateLLM outperforms state-of-the-art approaches in accuracy and efficiency, as a scalable solution for global weather forecasting.
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