融合人工智能与地球物理知识,提升地震预报准确性。
Integrating Artificial Intelligence and Geophysical Insights for Earthquake Forecasting: A Cross-Disciplinary Review
- 结合深度学习与地质物理先验知识构建预测模型。
- 弥补传统方法忽略非地震前兆的缺陷,提升预报能力。
- 适合地震学与AI交叉研究者参考,推动跨学科合作。
地震预报仍是重大科学挑战,现有方法难以达到实际应用所需的性能。传统模型主要依赖历史地震活动和地质力学数据,难以捕捉地震模式的复杂性,且常忽略地震前的地球物理、地球化学及大气异常等非地震前兆。将这些多元数据源整合进预报模型,并结合人工智能技术进步,为突破当前瓶颈提供了新路径。深度学习擅长处理大规模复杂数据,识别细微模式并建模多维关系,可有效克服传统方法局限。本综述强调将人工智能与地球物理知识融合,构建物理约束的鲁棒预报模型,系统探讨了当前主流AI方法、输入数据类型、损失函数设计及模型开发中的实际考量,为地球物理学家与AI研究者提供指导。尽管多数基于AI的研究过度简化地震预测,忽视数据不平衡与时空聚集等关键特征,但引入专业地球物理洞察可显著改善这一问题。本文呼吁加强跨学科协作,鼓励地球物理学者审慎尝试AI架构,同时敦促AI专家深入理解地震学原理。通过融合两大学科,有望发展出更准确、可靠且具社会影响力的地震预报工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Earthquake forecasting remains a significant scientific challenge, with current methods falling short of achieving the performance necessary for meaningful societal benefits. Traditional models, primarily based on past seismicity and geomechanical data, struggle to capture the complexity of seismic patterns and often overlook valuable non-seismic precursors such as geophysical, geochemical, and atmospheric anomalies. The integration of such diverse data sources into forecasting models, combined with advancements in AI technologies, offers a promising path forward. AI methods, particularly deep learning, excel at processing complex, large-scale datasets, identifying subtle patterns, and handling multidimensional relationships, making them well-suited for overcoming the limitations of conventional approaches. This review highlights the importance of combining AI with geophysical knowledge to create robust, physics-informed forecasting models. It explores current AI methods, input data types, loss functions, and practical considerations for model development, offering guidance to both geophysicists and AI researchers. While many AI-based studies oversimplify earthquake prediction, neglecting critical features such as data imbalance and spatio-temporal clustering, the integration of specialized geophysical insights into AI models can address these shortcomings. We emphasize the importance of interdisciplinary collaboration, urging geophysicists to experiment with AI architectures thoughtfully and encouraging AI experts to deepen their understanding of seismology. By bridging these disciplines, we can develop more accurate, reliable, and societally impactful earthquake forecasting tools.
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