用图神经网络捕捉电表间空间关系,提升居民用电预测精度。
Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks in short term load forecasting: Does adding Graph Structure in Consumption Data Improve Predictions?
- 将电表数据建模为图结构,融合空间邻近关系与时间序列
- 居民级预测准确率提升,聚合级效果不显著
- 首次系统评测图模型在真实负荷预测中的表现,适合电力领域研究者
短期负荷预测(STLF)在传统与现代电力系统中至关重要。现有模型主要依赖历史数据的时间依赖性进行预测。随着智能电表广泛部署,其数据不仅具有时间相关性,还存在邻近电表间的空间关联。这一特性促使研究者探索能有效整合时空关系的新型模型。本文综述了适用于STLF的时空图神经网络(STGNNs)研究现状,并从技术角度对若干代表性模型在居民级和聚合级负荷预测任务上进行了基准测试。结果表明,在居民级预测中引入图结构特征可显著提升准确性;但在聚合级预测中,该优势并不明显。研究揭示了图结构在不同粒度负荷预测中的差异性作用。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Short term Load Forecasting (STLF) plays an important role in traditional and modern power systems. Most STLF models predominantly exploit temporal dependencies from historical data to predict future consumption. Nowadays, with the widespread deployment of smart meters, their data can contain spatiotemporal dependencies. In particular, their consumption data is not only correlated to historical values but also to the values of neighboring smart meters. This new characteristic motivates researchers to explore and experiment with new models that can effectively integrate spatiotemporal interrelations to increase forecasting performance. Spatiotemporal Graph Neural Networks (STGNNs) can leverage such interrelations by modeling relationships between smart meters as a graph and using these relationships as additional features to predict future energy consumption. While extensively studied in other spatiotemporal forecasting domains such as traffic, environments, or renewable energy generation, their application to load forecasting remains relatively unexplored, particularly in scenarios where the graph structure is not inherently available. This paper overviews the current literature focusing on STGNNs with application in STLF. Additionally, from a technical perspective, it also benchmarks selected STGNN models for STLF at the residential and aggregate levels. The results indicate that incorporating graph features can improve forecasting accuracy at the residential level; however, this effect is not reflected at the aggregate level
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