分解交通流趋势与周期性,提升预测精度
Spatiotemporal-aware Trend-Seasonality Decomposition Network for Traffic Flow Forecasting
- 构建动态图结构,联合捕捉时空特征
- 分离趋势与季节成分,提升建模精度
- 适合城市交通预测研究者参考
交通预测对优化出行调度和提升公共安全至关重要,但交通数据中复杂的时空动态给精准预测带来挑战。本文提出一种新型模型——时空感知的趋势-季节分解网络(STDN)。该模型首先构建动态图结构表示交通流,并引入新颖的时空嵌入以联合捕捉全局交通动态。学习到的表征通过专门设计的趋势-季节分解模块进一步优化,该模块在图中各节点不同时间点上解耦趋势-循环分量与季节分量。随后,这些分量经编码器-解码器网络处理,生成最终预测结果。在真实交通数据集上的大量实验表明,STDN在保持显著计算效率的同时实现卓越性能。此外,我们发布了新数据集JiNan,其包含独特的城市内部动态,丰富了交通预测评估场景的多样性。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Traffic prediction is critical for optimizing travel scheduling and enhancing public safety, yet the complex spatial and temporal dynamics within traffic data present significant challenges for accurate forecasting. In this paper, we introduce a novel model, the Spatiotemporal-aware Trend-Seasonality Decomposition Network (STDN). This model begins by constructing a dynamic graph structure to represent traffic flow and incorporates novel spatio-temporal embeddings to jointly capture global traffic dynamics. The representations learned are further refined by a specially designed trend-seasonality decomposition module, which disentangles the trend-cyclical component and seasonal component for each traffic node at different times within the graph. These components are subsequently processed through an encoder-decoder network to generate the final predictions. Extensive experiments conducted on real-world traffic datasets demonstrate that STDN achieves superior performance with remarkable computation cost. Furthermore, we have released a new traffic dataset named JiNan, which features unique inner-city dynamics, thereby enriching the scenario comprehensiveness in traffic prediction evaluation.
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