arXiv:2502.13290cs.LGcs.AI2025-02

用神经点过程预测重症患者并发症爆发,提升可解释性。

Prediction of Clinical Complication Onset using Neural Point Processes

  • 采用神经点过程建模医疗事件时间序列,捕捉动态风险变化
  • 在6个数据集上验证,对心脏骤停等事件提前预警有效
  • 结果可解释性强,适合临床医生理解风险演化路径

在重症监护环境中提前预测医疗事件对改善患者预后和资源管理至关重要。利用预测模型,医疗人员可在心脏骤停、败血症或呼吸衰竭等事件发生前进行干预。近年来,机器学习在预测特定不良事件发生时间方面取得进展,但多数模型缺乏可解释性。本文探索神经时间点过程在不良事件发作预测中的应用,旨在揭示临床发展路径并提供可解释的洞察。实验涵盖六种先进神经点过程与六个重症监护数据集,分别针对不同不良事件的发作预测。该研究首次系统展示了神经点过程在事件预测中的新应用场景。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Predicting medical events in advance within critical care settings is paramount for patient outcomes and resource management. Utilizing predictive models, healthcare providers can anticipate issues such as cardiac arrest, sepsis, or respiratory failure before they manifest. Recently, there has been a surge in research focusing on forecasting adverse medical event onsets prior to clinical manifestation using machine learning. However, while these models provide temporal prognostic predictions for the occurrence of a specific adverse event of interest within defined time intervals, their interpretability often remains a challenge. In this work, we explore the applicability of neural temporal point processes in the context of adverse event onset prediction, with the aim of explaining clinical pathways and providing interpretable insights. Our experiments span six state-of-the-art neural point processes and six critical care datasets, each focusing on the onset of distinct adverse events. This work represents a novel application class of neural temporal point processes in event prediction.

点过程重症监护可解释性时间预测

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