直接优化交易目标,让加密货币市场执行更贴近VWAP基准。
Deep Learning for VWAP Execution in Crypto Markets: Beyond the Volume Curve
- 跳过预测成交量曲线,用深度学习直接优化执行策略
- 在加密市场中实现更低的VWAP偏离度,优于传统方法
- 适合追求高精度交易执行的量化团队或算法交易者
成交量加权平均价格(VWAP)是交易执行中最普遍的基准,能为不同市场参与者提供无偏性能对比。然而,实现VWAP极具挑战,因其依赖动态变化的成交量与价格。传统方法通常聚焦于预测市场成交量曲线,该假设在稳定环境下成立,但在波动性更高的加密市场中误差显著增大。本文提出一种深度学习框架,绕过中间的成交量预测步骤,直接优化VWAP执行目标。通过自动微分与定制损失函数,模型校准订单分配以最小化VWAP滑点,全面应对执行复杂性。实验表明,该直接优化方法在加密市场中始终优于传统方法,即使使用简单线性模型(arXiv:2410.21448)也表现更优。结果验证了优化VWAP性能的策略往往偏离精确的成交量预测,凸显直接建模执行目标的优势。该研究为高波动市场提供了更高效、稳健的VWAP执行框架,展示了深度学习在复杂金融系统中直接目标优化的潜力。尽管实证分析集中于加密市场,其核心原理可扩展至股票等其他资产类别。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP) is arguably the most prevalent benchmark for trade execution as it provides an unbiased standard for comparing performance across market participants. However, achieving VWAP is inherently challenging due to its dependence on two dynamic factors, volumes and prices. Traditional approaches typically focus on forecasting the market's volume curve, an assumption that may hold true under steady conditions but becomes suboptimal in more volatile environments or markets such as cryptocurrency where prediction error margins are higher. In this study, I propose a deep learning framework that directly optimizes the VWAP execution objective by bypassing the intermediate step of volume curve prediction. Leveraging automatic differentiation and custom loss functions, my method calibrates order allocation to minimize VWAP slippage, thereby fully addressing the complexities of the execution problem. My results demonstrate that this direct optimization approach consistently achieves lower VWAP slippage compared to conventional methods, even when utilizing a naive linear model presented in arXiv:2410.21448. They validate the observation that strategies optimized for VWAP performance tend to diverge from accurate volume curve predictions and thus underscore the advantage of directly modeling the execution objective. This research contributes a more efficient and robust framework for VWAP execution in volatile markets, illustrating the potential of deep learning in complex financial systems where direct objective optimization is crucial. Although my empirical analysis focuses on cryptocurrency markets, the underlying principles of the framework are readily applicable to other asset classes such as equities.
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