arXiv:2502.14527cs.LG2025-02

用多任务学习建模风场涡流效应,提升风机功率预测精度。

Inter-turbine Modelling of Wind-Farm Power using Multi-task Learning

  • 基于层次贝叶斯的多任务学习,捕捉不同风机间的空间相关性。
  • 在未训练过的风机上仍可准确预测功率,优于基准模型。
  • 适合风电运维、智能监控等需要低样本高泛化的场景。

为应对可再生能源发电需求,提升风电设施在线监测能力以降低运维成本至关重要。然而,数据驱动方法面临标签数据不完整、运行环境多变及不确定性量化难等挑战。本文提出一种概率回归模型,通过数据学习并调整涡流效应影响。进一步利用各风机任务间参数的空间相关性,在层次贝叶斯框架下构建“元模型”,实现对风机位置的自适应功率预测,包括训练数据中未包含的风机。结果表明,该元模型显著优于多个基准模型,为具有变量相关性的结构群体(如受涡流效应影响的风机)提供高效数据利用新策略。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Because of the global need to increase power production from renewable energy resources, developments in the online monitoring of the associated infrastructure is of interest to reduce operation and maintenance costs. However, challenges exist for data-driven approaches to this problem, such as incomplete or limited histories of labelled damage-state data, operational and environmental variability, or the desire for the quantification of uncertainty to support risk management. This work first introduces a probabilistic regression model for predicting wind-turbine power, which adjusts for wake effects learnt from data. Spatial correlations in the learned model parameters for different tasks (turbines) are then leveraged in a hierarchical Bayesian model (an approach to multi-task learning) to develop a "metamodel", which can be used to make power-predictions which adjust for turbine location - including on previously unobserved turbines not included in the training data. The results show that the metamodel is able to outperform a series of benchmark models, and demonstrates a novel strategy for making efficient use of data for inference in populations of structures, in particular where correlations exist in the variable(s) of interest (such as those from wind-turbine wake-effects).

风能多任务学习概率建模

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