用聚类+神经网络预测冷负荷,节能超13%。
Feature Engineering Approach to Building Load Prediction: A Case Study for Commercial Building Chiller Plant Optimization in Tropical Weather
- 对多维天气数据聚类降维,再结合神经网络与卡尔曼滤波
- 预测准确率提升46.5%,优化策略可省电13.8%
- 适合楼宇能源系统优化与智能控温研究者
热带国家中空调能耗可达建筑总用电量的60%。针对商业楼宇集中式制冷系统,模型预测控制依赖精准的冷负荷预测。人工神经网络虽能建模非线性关系,但易过拟合。本研究提出融合卡尔曼滤波、K-means聚类与神经网络的负荷预测模型。基于新加坡市中心一栋摩天大楼的真实数据,该模型使预测准确率提升46.5%。进一步通过遗传算法优化预测负荷,实现最优冷水机组调度,预计可节省13.8%能耗。此外,评估了热能存储系统集成方案,显示资本成本和运行成本分别降低26%和13%。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In tropical countries with high humidity, air conditioning can account for up to 60% of a building's energy use. For commercial buildings with centralized systems, the efficiency of the chiller plant is vital, and model predictive control provides an effective strategy for optimizing operations through dynamic adjustments based on accurate load predictions. Artificial neural networks are effective for modelling nonlinear systems but are prone to overfitting due to their complexity. Effective feature engineering can mitigate this issue. While weather data are crucial for load prediction, they are often used as raw numerical inputs without advanced processing. Clustering features is a technique that can reduce model complexity and enhance prediction accuracy. Although previous studies have explored clustering algorithms for load prediction, none have applied them to multidimensional weather data, revealing a research gap. This study presents a cooling load prediction model that combines a neural network with Kalman filtering and K-means clustering. Applied to real world data from a commercial skyscraper in Singapore's central business district, the model achieved a 46.5% improvement in prediction accuracy. An optimal chiller sequencing strategy was also developed through genetic algorithm optimization of the predictive load, potentially saving 13.8% in energy. Finally, the study evaluated the integration of thermal energy storage into the chiller plant design, demonstrating potential reductions in capital and operational costs of 26% and 13%, respectively.
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