arXiv:2502.16116cs.LGphysics.ao-ph2025-02被引 2

融合气象站与雷达数据,提升短时降水预报精度。

Integrating Weather Station Data and Radar for Precipitation Nowcasting: SmaAt-fUsion and SmaAt-Krige-GNet

  • 用卷积层融合气象站数据与雷达图像,改进网络结构。
  • 在低/高降水场景下,新模型均优于仅用雷达的基线模型。
  • 适合气象预报、防灾减灾等需要精准短时降水预测的场景。

短时降水预报对洪水管理、交通调度、能源系统运行和应急响应至关重要。然而,许多现有模型未能充分挖掘大气信息,主要依赖降水数据。本研究探讨融合多变量气象站数据与雷达数据是否能提升预报性能,并提出两种互补架构:SmaAt-fUsion 在 SmaAt-UNet 框架中通过卷积层将气象站数据引入网络瓶颈;SmaAt-Krige-GNet 则使用克里金插值法处理站点数据生成变量特异性地图,并在基于 SmaAt-GNet 的双编码器架构中实现多层次融合。基于荷兰2016–2019年四年的气象站与雷达数据进行实验评估,结果表明:在低降水条件下,SmaAt-Krige-GNet 优于仅依赖雷达的 SmaAt-UNet;在低/高降水条件下,SmaAt-fUsion 均表现更优。这证明融合离散气象站数据可显著提升深度学习气象预报模型性能。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Short-term precipitation nowcasting is essential for flood management, transportation, energy system operations, and emergency response. However, many existing models fail to fully exploit the extensive atmospheric information available, relying primarily on precipitation data alone. This study examines whether integrating multi variable weather-station measurements with radar can enhance nowcasting skill and introduces two complementary architectures that integrate multi variable station data with radar images. The SmaAt-fUsion model extends the SmaAt-UNet framework by incorporating weather station data through a convolutional layer, integrating it into the bottleneck of the network; The SmaAt-Krige-GNet model combines precipitation maps with weather station data processed using Kriging, a geo-statistical interpolation method, to generate variable-specific maps. These maps are then utilized in a dual-encoder architecture based on SmaAt-GNet, allowing multi-level data integration. Experimental evaluations were conducted using four years (2016--2019) of weather station and precipitation radar data from the Netherlands. Results demonstrate that SmaAt-Krige-GNet outperforms the standard SmaAt-UNet, which relies solely on precipitation radar data, in low precipitation scenarios, while SmaAt-fUsion surpasses SmaAt-UNet in both low and high precipitation scenarios. This highlights the potential of incorporating discrete weather station data to enhance the performance of deep learning-based weather nowcasting models.

降水预报气象数据深度学习融合模型

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