用合成数据训练的模型,少样本也能精准预测多变量时间序列。
TimePFN: Effective Multivariate Time Series Forecasting with Synthetic Data

- 通过多种高斯过程生成合成多变量时间序列数据
- 仅用500个数据点微调,误差接近全量训练结果
- 适合数据稀缺场景下的时间序列预测任务
时间序列应用多样但领域特定数据稀缺,亟需具备强少样本学习能力的模型。本文提出基于先验-数据拟合网络(PFN)思想的TimePFN架构与新型训练方案,用于多变量时间序列(MTS)预测。该方法首先通过多种高斯过程核函数与线性共区域化方法生成合成MTS数据;其次设计了一种能同时捕捉时序与通道间依赖关系的Transformer架构。在多个基准数据集上评估表明,TimePFN在零样本和少样本设置下均优于现有最优模型。值得注意的是,仅需500个数据点微调即可逼近全数据训练误差,50个数据点也表现良好。此外,其单变量预测能力同样出色,证明了优异的泛化性能。本工作验证了合成数据先验在MTS预测中的潜力,显著提升了零样本与少样本预测能力。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The diversity of time series applications and scarcity of domain-specific data highlight the need for time-series models with strong few-shot learning capabilities. In this work, we propose a novel training scheme and a transformer-based architecture, collectively referred to as TimePFN, for multivariate time-series (MTS) forecasting. TimePFN is based on the concept of Prior-data Fitted Networks (PFN), which aims to approximate Bayesian inference. Our approach consists of (1) generating synthetic MTS data through diverse Gaussian process kernels and the linear coregionalization method, and (2) a novel MTS architecture capable of utilizing both temporal and cross-channel dependencies across all input patches. We evaluate TimePFN on several benchmark datasets and demonstrate that it outperforms the existing state-of-the-art models for MTS forecasting in both zero-shot and few-shot settings. Notably, fine-tuning TimePFN with as few as 500 data points nearly matches full dataset training error, and even 50 data points yield competitive results. We also find that TimePFN exhibits strong univariate forecasting performance, attesting to its generalization ability. Overall, this work unlocks the power of synthetic data priors for MTS forecasting and facilitates strong zero- and few-shot forecasting performance.
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