arXiv:2502.16444physics.flu-dyncs.LG2025-02被引 2

对比不同数据同化方法,发现状态修正比降水修正更有效

Update hydrological states or meteorological forcings? Comparing data assimilation methods for differentiable hydrologic models

  • 用变分同化同时优化降水和水文状态的调整器
  • 模型在美国内陆地区预测效率提升至0.82(原0.75)
  • 无需训练数据,适合全流域实际应用

数据同化(DA)使水文模型能利用近实时观测更新内部状态以提高预报精度。采用长短期记忆网络(LSTM)等深度神经网络时,通过滞后观测输入(称“数据融合”)或变分同化均取得良好效果。然而,对于仅部分物理意义状态由神经网络补充参数或缺失过程的“可微分”物理引导模型,哪种方法表现更优尚不明确。本文为可微分模型开发了变分同化方法,包括仅优化降水、仅优化模型内部水文状态,或两者联合优化。结果表明,基于CAMELS数据集的可微分径流模型经变分同化后,一天提前期的中位纳什-萨特克利夫效率(NSE)从0.75提升至0.82,性能与使用同化的LSTM相当,在美国东部、西北部及大平原中部地区达到或超过其表现。实现最优效果需同时使用降水与状态调整器,其中状态调整器单独作用已显著有效,降水调整器对高流量有适度增益。该同化框架无需系统训练数据,可作为流域网络的实际同化方案。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Data assimilation (DA) enables hydrologic models to update their internal states using near-real-time observations for more accurate forecasts. With deep neural networks like long short-term memory (LSTM), using either lagged observations as inputs (called "data integration") or variational DA has shown success in improving forecasts. However, it is unclear which methods are performant or optimal for physics-informed machine learning ("differentiable") models, which represent only a small amount of physically-meaningful states while using deep networks to supply parameters or missing processes. Here we developed variational DA methods for differentiable models, including optimizing adjusters for just precipitation data, just model internal hydrological states, or both. Our results demonstrated that differentiable streamflow models using the CAMELS dataset can benefit strongly and equivalently from variational DA as LSTM, with one-day lead time median Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) elevated from 0.75 to 0.82. The resulting forecast matched or outperformed LSTM with DA in the eastern, northwestern, and central Great Plains regions of the conterminous United States. Both precipitation and state adjusters were needed to achieve these results, with the latter being substantially more effective on its own, and the former adding moderate benefits for high flows. Our DA framework does not need systematic training data and could serve as a practical DA scheme for whole river networks.

水文建模数据同化可微分模型深度学习

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