提出高效算法,让预测集在保证覆盖率前提下体积更小。
Volume Optimality in Conformal Prediction with Structured Prediction Sets
- 用动态规划构造区间并集,实现体积近优
- 理论保证任意分布下体积接近最优
- 适合需要紧凑预测集的可靠推断场景
置信推断是一种广泛研究的技术,用于构建未来观测值的预测集。大多数方法关注覆盖率保证,但未提供预测集大小(体积)的正式保障。我们首先证明了体积最优性的不可能性:任何无分布假设的方法只能得到平凡解。随后,通过将预测集限制为具有有限VC维的集合族(具体为k个区间的并集),提出新的体积最优性定义。主要贡献是设计一种基于动态规划的高效无分布算法,可确保在任意分布下,其生成的区间并集体积在所有满足覆盖率要求的k区间并集中近似最优。结合分布型置信推断框架(Chernozhukov等,2021),该算法还可实现近似条件覆盖率与条件体积最优性,前提是具备合理的条件累积分布函数估计器。理论结果已建立体积最优性保障,实验进一步表明,在多种场景中该方法显著优于现有方法。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Conformal Prediction is a widely studied technique to construct prediction sets of future observations. Most conformal prediction methods focus on achieving the necessary coverage guarantees, but do not provide formal guarantees on the size (volume) of the prediction sets. We first prove an impossibility of volume optimality where any distribution-free method can only find a trivial solution. We then introduce a new notion of volume optimality by restricting the prediction sets to belong to a set family (of finite VC-dimension), specifically a union of $k$-intervals. Our main contribution is an efficient distribution-free algorithm based on dynamic programming (DP) to find a union of $k$-intervals that is guaranteed for any distribution to have near-optimal volume among all unions of $k$-intervals satisfying the desired coverage property. By adopting the framework of distributional conformal prediction (Chernozhukov et al., 2021), the new DP based conformity score can also be applied to achieve approximate conditional coverage and conditional restricted volume optimality, as long as a reasonable estimator of the conditional CDF is available. While the theoretical results already establish volume-optimality guarantees, they are complemented by experiments that demonstrate that our method can significantly outperform existing methods in many settings.
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