arXiv:2502.16789cs.CEcs.AI2025-02KDD被引 46

用AI挖掘抗衰减的金融因子,提升长期投资收益

AlphaAgent: LLM-Driven Alpha Mining with Regularized Exploration to Counteract Alpha Decay

  • 结合LLM与结构约束,生成原创且有金融逻辑的因子
  • 在沪深300和标普500市场中连续4年稳定产生显著超额收益
  • 适合量化投资团队对抗因子失效问题

Alpha mining 是量化投资中的关键环节,旨在复杂市场中发现对未来资产回报具有预测力的信号。然而,因子衰减(alpha decay)——即因子随时间失去预测能力——是主要挑战。传统方法如遗传编程易因过拟合和复杂性导致快速衰减;而基于大语言模型(LLM)的方法虽有潜力,却过度依赖已有知识,生成同质化因子,加剧拥挤并加速衰减。为此,我们提出 AlphaAgent,一个自主框架,通过自适应正则化实现抗衰减的 alpha 因子挖掘。其核心机制包括:(i) 基于抽象语法树(AST)相似度的原创性强制,避免重复已有因子;(ii) LLM评估的假设-因子语义一致性对齐,确保因子具备金融合理性;(iii) 基于AST的结构约束控制复杂度,防止过拟合。三者协同引导因子生成,在原创性、金融逻辑与市场适应性间取得平衡,有效缓解衰减风险。大量实验表明,AlphaAgent在牛市与熊市中均优于传统及基于LLM的方法,在中国沪深300与美国标普500市场过去四年持续产生显著超额收益,展现出卓越的抗衰减能力,极大提升生成强因子的可能性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Alpha mining, a critical component in quantitative investment, focuses on discovering predictive signals for future asset returns in increasingly complex financial markets. However, the pervasive issue of alpha decay, where factors lose their predictive power over time, poses a significant challenge for alpha mining. Traditional methods like genetic programming face rapid alpha decay from overfitting and complexity, while approaches driven by Large Language Models (LLMs), despite their promise, often rely too heavily on existing knowledge, creating homogeneous factors that worsen crowding and accelerate decay. To address this challenge, we propose AlphaAgent, an autonomous framework that effectively integrates LLM agents with ad hoc regularizations for mining decay-resistant alpha factors. AlphaAgent employs three key mechanisms: (i) originality enforcement through a similarity measure based on abstract syntax trees (ASTs) against existing alphas, (ii) hypothesis-factor alignment via LLM-evaluated semantic consistency between market hypotheses and generated factors, and (iii) complexity control via AST-based structural constraints, preventing over-engineered constructions that are prone to overfitting. These mechanisms collectively guide the alpha generation process to balance originality, financial rationale, and adaptability to evolving market conditions, mitigating the risk of alpha decay. Extensive evaluations show that AlphaAgent outperforms traditional and LLM-based methods in mitigating alpha decay across bull and bear markets, consistently delivering significant alpha in Chinese CSI 500 and US S&P 500 markets over the past four years. Notably, AlphaAgent showcases remarkable resistance to alpha decay, elevating the potential for yielding powerful factors.

量化投资因子挖掘LLM应用抗衰减

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