arXiv:2502.16896cs.LGcs.AI2025-02被引 14

用大模型实现零样本负荷预测,提升可再生能源系统泛化能力

Zero-shot Load Forecasting for Integrated Energy Systems: A Large Language Model-based Framework with Multi-task Learning

  • 基于大语言模型与多任务学习,将能源数据转化为可理解的提示
  • 在20户澳洲光伏家庭数据上,零样本预测误差低于现有方法12%以上
  • 适合智能电网、跨区域能源系统等缺乏历史数据的场景

可再生能源在电力系统中渗透率不断提高,导致综合能源系统负荷预测的复杂性和不确定性加剧。传统方法严重依赖历史数据,在不同场景间迁移能力差,难以满足智能电网和能源互联网的新兴需求。本文提出一种基于大语言模型(LLM)的零样本负荷预测框架——TSLLM-Load Forecasting Mechanism,包含三个核心模块:多源能源负荷数据预处理模块、通过多任务学习与相似性对齐构建时序提示的生成模块,以及利用预训练大模型进行精准预测的模块。在包含20个澳大利亚太阳能住户真实负荷数据的数据集上验证,该框架在常规测试中达到均方误差(MSE)0.4163、平均绝对误差(MAE)0.3760,优于现有方法至少8%;在19户未见家庭的零样本预测中,总MSE为11.2712,总MAE为7.6709,性能提升至少12%。结果表明该框架在综合能源系统中具备高精度与强迁移能力,尤其适用于可再生能源集成与智能电网应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

The growing penetration of renewable energy sources in power systems has increased the complexity and uncertainty of load forecasting, especially for integrated energy systems with multiple energy carriers. Traditional forecasting methods heavily rely on historical data and exhibit limited transferability across different scenarios, posing significant challenges for emerging applications in smart grids and energy internet. This paper proposes the TSLLM-Load Forecasting Mechanism, a novel zero-shot load forecasting framework based on large language models (LLMs) to address these challenges. The framework consists of three key components: a data preprocessing module that handles multi-source energy load data, a time series prompt generation module that bridges the semantic gap between energy data and LLMs through multi-task learning and similarity alignment, and a prediction module that leverages pre-trained LLMs for accurate forecasting. The framework's effectiveness was validated on a real-world dataset comprising load profiles from 20 Australian solar-powered households, demonstrating superior performance in both conventional and zero-shot scenarios. In conventional testing, our method achieved a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 0.4163 and a Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 0.3760, outperforming existing approaches by at least 8\%. In zero-shot prediction experiments across 19 households, the framework maintained consistent accuracy with a total MSE of 11.2712 and MAE of 7.6709, showing at least 12\% improvement over current methods. The results validate the framework's potential for accurate and transferable load forecasting in integrated energy systems, particularly beneficial for renewable energy integration and smart grid applications.

负荷预测大模型零样本综合能源

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