arXiv:2502.17011q-fin.CPcs.CE2025-02被引 2

用因果生成模型和强化学习生成高质量债券收益率数据,提升预测精度。

Predicting Liquidity-Aware Bond Yields using Causal GANs and Deep Reinforcement Learning with LLM Evaluation

  • 结合因果GAN与SAC强化学习生成四类债券的合成数据。
  • 实现0.103%的最低平均绝对误差,60%盈利率,LLM评分3.37/5。
  • 适合金融量化研究、智能投顾与风险建模人员使用。

由于数据稀缺、宏观经济非线性依赖及市场动态变化,债券收益率预测极具挑战。本文提出一种新框架,利用因果生成对抗网络(CausalGANs)与软演员-评论家(SAC)强化学习,为四类主要债券(AAA、BAA、US10Y、Junk)生成高保真合成收益率数据。通过引入12个关键宏观经济变量,确保合成数据保持真实市场的统计特性。为将市场依赖的合成数据转化为可操作洞察,采用微调后的大型语言模型Qwen2.5-7B生成买卖信号、风险评估与波动率预测。通过自动化、人工及LLM评估验证,本方法在预测准确率、平均绝对误差(0.103%)、盈亏表现(60%盈利率)、LLM评分(3.37/5)和专家打分(4.67/5)上均优于现有方法。强化学习增强的合成数据生成实现最低0.103%的平均绝对误差,证明其能有效复现真实债券市场动态。该工作不仅提升数据驱动的交易策略,还提供可扩展的高保真合成金融数据流水线,适用于风险与波动率管理及投资决策。本文建立了合成数据生成、基于大模型的金融预测与语言模型评估之间的桥梁,推动人工智能在金融决策中的应用。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Financial bond yield forecasting is challenging due to data scarcity, nonlinear macroeconomic dependencies, and evolving market conditions. In this paper, we propose a novel framework that leverages Causal Generative Adversarial Networks (CausalGANs) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) reinforcement learning (RL) to generate high-fidelity synthetic bond yield data for four major bond categories (AAA, BAA, US10Y, Junk). By incorporating 12 key macroeconomic variables, we ensure statistical fidelity by preserving essential market properties. To transform this market dependent synthetic data into actionable insights, we employ a finetuned Large Language Model (LLM) Qwen2.5-7B that generates trading signals (BUY/HOLD/SELL), risk assessments, and volatility projections. We use automated, human and LLM evaluations, all of which demonstrate that our framework improves forecasting performance over existing methods, with statistical validation via predictive accuracy, MAE evaluation(0.103%), profit/loss evaluation (60% profit rate), LLM evaluation (3.37/5) and expert assessments scoring 4.67 out of 5. The reinforcement learning-enhanced synthetic data generation achieves the least Mean Absolute Error of 0.103, demonstrating its effectiveness in replicating real-world bond market dynamics. We not only enhance data-driven trading strategies but also provides a scalable, high-fidelity synthetic financial data pipeline for risk & volatility management and investment decision-making. This work establishes a bridge between synthetic data generation, LLM driven financial forecasting, and language model evaluation, contributing to AI-driven financial decision-making.

债券预测因果生成强化学习大模型评估

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