用公司官网文本实时监测经济冲击影响，快速识别企业应对状况。
Real-time Monitoring of Economic Shocks using Company Websites
- 通过大模型分析超五百万家公司网站文本，量化响应程度与类型。
- 疫情期间预测表现准确，与防疫措施高度相关。
- 适合政策制定者、金融机构和危机管理者快速评估风险。
理解经济冲击对企业的影响对分析经济增长与韧性至关重要。我们提出一种基于网络的受影响度指标（WAI），用于在不同情境下实时监测经济扰动。通过对超过五百万家公司的网站文本进行大语言模型辅助分类与信息抽取，WAI能够量化企业对外部冲击的响应程度与性质。以新冠疫情为例，结果表明WAI与疫情防控措施高度相关，并能可靠预测企业绩效。相较于传统数据源，WAI可在全球范围内提供及时、跨行业、跨地区的微观企业层面信息，弥补制度与数据可得性限制带来的空白。该方法在技术、政治、金融、健康或环境危机的监测与缓解中具有广泛应用潜力，是推动适应性政策制定与经济韧性的变革性工具。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Understanding the effects of economic shocks on firms is critical for analyzing economic growth and resilience. We introduce a Web-Based Affectedness Indicator (WAI), a general-purpose tool for real-time monitoring of economic disruptions across diverse contexts. By leveraging Large Language Model (LLM) assisted classification and information extraction on texts from over five million company websites, WAI quantifies the degree and nature of firms' responses to external shocks. Using the COVID-19 pandemic as a specific application, we show that WAI is highly correlated with pandemic containment measures and reliably predicts firm performance. Unlike traditional data sources, WAI provides timely firm-level information across industries and geographies worldwide that would otherwise be unavailable due to institutional and data availability constraints. This methodology offers significant potential for monitoring and mitigating the impact of technological, political, financial, health or environmental crises, and represents a transformative tool for adaptive policy-making and economic resilience.
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