arXiv:2502.17493cs.LGcs.AI2025-02

用新损失函数提升股市日交易收益,13年实测年化超37%。

A Novel Loss Function for Deep Learning Based Daily Stock Trading System

  • 设计返回加权损失函数,引导模型聚焦高增长机会。
  • 2019-2024年年化收益61.73%,夏普比率达1.18。
  • 无需领域知识,适合量化交易与机器学习研究者。

在持续变化且波动剧烈的股票市场中做出稳定盈利决策始终是一项挑战。尽管专业领域已发展出如资本资产定价模型(CAPM)等基础理论来预测价格走势与评估证券,近年来人工智能(AI)在资产定价中的作用日益增强。虽然深度学习模型存在黑箱特性、可解释性差,但其在金融行业中的地位持续巩固。本文提出一种返回加权损失函数,以驱动模型在仅获有限信息的情况下实现最优增长。仅使用公开股票数据(开盘/收盘/最高/最低价、成交量、行业信息)及由此构建的技术指标,我们设计了一种高效的日度交易系统,用于识别高增长机会。最佳模型在2019至2024年共1340天测试期内,实现日再平衡年化收益率61.73%,年化夏普比率为1.18;在2005至2010年共1360天测试期内,年化收益率为37.61%,年化夏普比率为0.97。成功主因包括新颖的返回加权损失函数、类别与连续数据的融合方式以及机器学习模型架构。通过多种性能指标与统计证据,我们证明该损失函数优于传统损失函数。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Making consistently profitable financial decisions in a continuously evolving and volatile stock market has always been a difficult task. Professionals from different disciplines have developed foundational theories to anticipate price movement and evaluate securities such as the famed Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM). In recent years, the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in asset pricing has been growing. Although the black-box nature of deep learning models lacks interpretability, they have continued to solidify their position in the financial industry. We aim to further enhance AI's potential and utility by introducing a return-weighted loss function that will drive top growth while providing the ML models a limited amount of information. Using only publicly accessible stock data (open/close/high/low, trading volume, sector information) and several technical indicators constructed from them, we propose an efficient daily trading system that detects top growth opportunities. Our best models achieve 61.73\% annual return on daily rebalancing with an annualized Sharpe Ratio of 1.18 over 1340 testing days from 2019 to 2024, and 37.61\% annual return with an annualized Sharpe Ratio of 0.97 over 1360 testing days from 2005 to 2010. The main drivers for success, especially independent of any domain knowledge, are the novel return-weighted loss function, the integration of categorical and continuous data, and the ML model architecture. We also demonstrate the superiority of our novel loss function over traditional loss functions via several performance metrics and statistical evidence.

量化交易损失函数深度学习股市预测

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