arXiv:2502.17690nlin.CDcs.LG2025-02

从无序数据中推断随机动力学,突破传统时间序列方法限制。

Identifying Stochastic Dynamics from Non-Sequential Data (DyNoSeD)

  • 基于福克-普朗克方程残差,设计局部与全局两种参数识别路径。
  • 成功恢复洛伦兹系统三参数及基因调控网络交互矩阵,仅需稳态无序样本。
  • 适用于数据受限或无法获取时序信息的科学建模场景,如生物、物理系统。

从数据中推断随机动力学是各科学领域的核心问题,但在许多应用中仅能获得无序、非序列的测量数据,且常局限于状态空间的有限区域,标准时间序列方法难以适用。本文提出 DyNoSeD,首个基于第一性原理的框架,通过最小化福克-普朗克方程残差,从这类非序列数据中识别未知动力学参数。开发了两种互补方法:局部路径利用局部估计得分处理区域受限数据;全局路径采用核 Stein 散度,在无需显式密度或得分估计的情况下拟合全局数据。当动力学在未知参数上为仿射时,证明了参数存在性与唯一性的充要条件,并进行敏感性分析,识别出受数据约束强与自由度高的参数。对于一般非仿射情形,两种路径均定义可微损失,支持梯度优化。实验验证:(i) 从非序列数据(局部路径用区域受限数据,全局路径用全稳态数据)恢复三参数随机洛伦兹系统;(ii) 仅用无序稳态样本,通过全局路径重构一个由公开 B 细胞分化模型导出的 3×7 非线性基因调控网络交互矩阵。最后,同一福克-普朗克残差视角支持‘动力学到密度’的互补方法,可直接从已知动力学训练归一化密度估计器,无需观测数据。总体而言,DyNoSeD 提供两条基于福克-普朗克方程的第一性原理路径,实现从非序列数据中系统识别,连接数据、密度与随机动力学。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Inferring stochastic dynamics from data is central across the sciences, yet in many applications only unordered, non-sequential measurements are available-often restricted to limited regions of state space-so standard time-series methods do not apply. We introduce DyNoSeD, a first-principles framework that identifies unknown dynamical parameters from such non-sequential data by minimizing Fokker-Planck residuals. We develop two complementary routes: a local route that handles region-restricted data via locally estimated scores, and a global route that fits dynamics from globally sampled data using a kernel Stein discrepancy without explicit density or score estimation. When the dynamics are affine in the unknown parameters, we prove a necessary-and-sufficient condition for the existence and uniqueness of the inferred parameters and derive a sensitivity analysis that identifies which parameters are tightly constrained by the data and which remain effectively free under over-parameterization. For general non-affine case, both routes define differentiable losses amenable to gradient-based optimization. As demonstrations, we recover (i) the three parameters of a stochastic Lorenz system from non-sequential data (region-restricted data for the local route and full steady-state data for the global route) and (ii) a 3x7interaction matrix of a nonlinear gene-regulatory network derived from a published B-cell differentiation model, using only unordered steady-state samples and applying the global route. Finally, we show that the same Fokker-Planck residual viewpoint supports a "dynamics-to-density" complement that trains a normalized density estimator directly from known dynamics without any observations. Overall, IDyNSD provides two first-principles routes for system-identification from non-sequential data, grounded in the Fokker-Planck equation, that link data, density, and stochastic dynamics.

动力系统随机过程非序列数据参数识别

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