arXiv:2502.17744stat.MLcs.LG2025-02中稿 · AISTATS 2025被引 4

在数据分布偏移下,用加权方法提升分类置信度,确保预测安全。

Conformal Prediction Under Generalized Covariate Shift with Posterior Drift

  • 基于源域与目标域的分布偏移,设计加权置信预测方法
  • 理论证明在目标域保持覆盖概率保证,实验证明有效
  • 适合数据稀缺且分布不同的实际场景,如医疗诊断

在许多实际统计学习应用中,获取足够训练数据往往成本高昂、耗时或不可行。此时,迁移学习通过利用相关源域的知识来提升目标域的学习性能更具优势。已有诸多迁移学习方法在不同分布假设下被提出。本文研究一种新的迁移学习分布假设下的置信预测问题,即广义协变量偏移与后验漂移。在此设定下,我们提出一种加权置信分类器,同时利用源域和目标域样本,在目标域上保证覆盖率。理论分析表明其具有良好的渐近性质,数值实验进一步验证了该方法的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In many real applications of statistical learning, collecting sufficiently many training data is often expensive, time-consuming, or even unrealistic. In this case, a transfer learning approach, which aims to leverage knowledge from a related source domain to improve the learning performance in the target domain, is more beneficial. There have been many transfer learning methods developed under various distributional assumptions. In this article, we study a particular type of classification problem, called conformal prediction, under a new distributional assumption for transfer learning. Classifiers under the conformal prediction framework predict a set of plausible labels instead of one single label for each data instance, affording a more cautious and safer decision. We consider a generalization of the \textit{covariate shift with posterior drift} setting for transfer learning. Under this setting, we propose a weighted conformal classifier that leverages both the source and target samples, with a coverage guarantee in the target domain. Theoretical studies demonstrate favorable asymptotic properties. Numerical studies further illustrate the usefulness of the proposed method.

置信预测迁移学习分布偏移

Thank you to arXiv for use of its open access interoperability. PaperDance 不是 arXiv 官方产品;中文卡片由大模型生成,请以原文为准。