构建金融时序预测新基准,解决评估不全面、标准不统一、脱离实际问题。
FinTSB: A Comprehensive and Practical Benchmark for Financial Time Series Forecasting
- 按市场波动模式分四类,标准化数据预处理与评估流程。
- 引入交易费等真实约束,避免性能虚高,提升实用性。
- 提供轻量易用的统一平台,适合研究与模型对比验证。
金融时序数据记录了人类决策行为,蕴含可用于投资策略的宝贵历史信息。尽管该领域受到广泛关注并涌现出多种方法,但现有评估存在三大系统性缺陷:1)未能覆盖动态市场中所有股票波动模式(多样性缺口);2)缺乏统一评估协议,导致跨研究比较不可靠(标准化缺失);3)忽略关键市场结构因素,造成性能指标虚高,缺乏实际应用价值(现实错配)。为此,我们提出 FinTSB——一个全面且实用的金融时序预测基准。为增强多样性,将波动模式划分为四类,进行分块标记与预处理,并基于序列特征评估数据质量。为消除评估设置差异带来的偏差,我们在三个维度上统一评估指标,构建了融合多类骨干模型的轻量级、用户友好型流水线。为真实模拟交易场景,广泛建模包括交易费用在内的多种监管约束。在 FinTSB 上开展大量实验,揭示不同市场条件下模型选择的关键洞察。总体而言,FinTSB 为改进和评估金融时序预测方法提供了全新且全面的平台。代码已开源:https://github.com/TongjiFinLab/FinTSB。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Financial time series (FinTS) record the behavior of human-brain-augmented decision-making, capturing valuable historical information that can be leveraged for profitable investment strategies. Not surprisingly, this area has attracted considerable attention from researchers, who have proposed a wide range of methods based on various backbones. However, the evaluation of the area often exhibits three systemic limitations: 1. Failure to account for the full spectrum of stock movement patterns observed in dynamic financial markets. (Diversity Gap), 2. The absence of unified assessment protocols undermines the validity of cross-study performance comparisons. (Standardization Deficit), and 3. Neglect of critical market structure factors, resulting in inflated performance metrics that lack practical applicability. (Real-World Mismatch). Addressing these limitations, we propose FinTSB, a comprehensive and practical benchmark for financial time series forecasting (FinTSF). To increase the variety, we categorize movement patterns into four specific parts, tokenize and pre-process the data, and assess the data quality based on some sequence characteristics. To eliminate biases due to different evaluation settings, we standardize the metrics across three dimensions and build a user-friendly, lightweight pipeline incorporating methods from various backbones. To accurately simulate real-world trading scenarios and facilitate practical implementation, we extensively model various regulatory constraints, including transaction fees, among others. Finally, we conduct extensive experiments on FinTSB, highlighting key insights to guide model selection under varying market conditions. Overall, FinTSB provides researchers with a novel and comprehensive platform for improving and evaluating FinTSF methods. The code is available at https://github.com/TongjiFinLab/FinTSB.
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