arXiv:2502.18925cs.LGcs.AI2025-02被引 5

用向量量化增强束搜索,让稀缺数据下的物理预测更准更稳。

BeamVQ: Beam Search with Vector Quantization to Mitigate Data Scarcity in Physical Spatiotemporal Forecasting

  • 将确定性输出编码到隐空间,用向量量化生成概率化结果
  • 在极端事件上使预测均方误差降低39%,提升稀有现象捕捉能力
  • 适合做气象、灾害等极端事件预测的研究者和应用团队

实际中,物理时空预测常因数据稀缺而受限,尤其在极端事件场景下大规模数据采集困难。为此,我们提出一种新型概率框架 method{},通过迭代自训练与新自集成策略,显著提升对极端事件的物理一致性与泛化能力。该方法可对接任意基础预测模型,将其确定性输出编码至隐空间,并通过检索码本生成多种概率输出。BeamVQ将束搜索从离散空间拓展至连续状态空间,进一步结合领域特定指标(如极端事件的临界成功指数)筛选前k个优质候选,构建新自集成策略。该策略不仅提升推理质量与鲁棒性,还在持续自训练中迭代扩充训练数据集。最终,BeamVQ实现对原始数据集之外稀有但关键现象的有效探索。在多个基准与骨干模型上的实验表明,其预测均方误差平均降低达39%,显著增强极端事件检测效果,验证了其应对数据稀缺的有效性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

In practice, physical spatiotemporal forecasting can suffer from data scarcity, because collecting large-scale data is non-trivial, especially for extreme events. Hence, we propose \method{}, a novel probabilistic framework to realize iterative self-training with new self-ensemble strategies, achieving better physical consistency and generalization on extreme events. Following any base forecasting model, we can encode its deterministic outputs into a latent space and retrieve multiple codebook entries to generate probabilistic outputs. Then BeamVQ extends the beam search from discrete spaces to the continuous state spaces in this field. We can further employ domain-specific metrics (e.g., Critical Success Index for extreme events) to filter out the top-k candidates and develop the new self-ensemble strategy by combining the high-quality candidates. The self-ensemble can not only improve the inference quality and robustness but also iteratively augment the training datasets during continuous self-training. Consequently, BeamVQ realizes the exploration of rare but critical phenomena beyond the original dataset. Comprehensive experiments on different benchmarks and backbones show that BeamVQ consistently reduces forecasting MSE (up to 39%), enhancing extreme events detection and proving its effectiveness in handling data scarcity.

时空预测数据稀缺自训练向量量化

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