arXiv:2502.19357cs.LGcs.AI2025-02被引 13

用物理模型+机器学习预测核反应堆干涸临界热流,提升准确性和不确定性评估。

Physics-Based Hybrid Machine Learning for Critical Heat Flux Prediction with Uncertainty Quantification

  • 融合物理模型与深度神经网络集成,提升预测稳定性。
  • 数据充足时误差低至1.846%,且不确定性估计稳定。
  • 适合关注安全建模与数据稀缺场景的核工程研究者。

临界热流是沸水系统建模的关键参数,直接影响传热效率和部件温度性能。本研究开发并验证了一种融合机器学习与物理模型的不确定性感知混合建模方法,用于预测核反应堆干涸情况下的临界热流。采用Biasi和Bowring两个经验关联式,结合三种机器学习不确定性量化技术:深度神经网络集成、贝叶斯神经网络和深度高斯过程。以无基础模型的纯机器学习模型为基准,通过拟合图、不确定性分布和校准曲线,在数据丰富和有限两种场景下评估模型性能。结果表明,Biasi混合深度神经网络集成表现最优(平均绝对相对误差1.846%,不确定性估计稳定),尤其在数据充足时。贝叶斯神经网络误差与不确定性略高,但校准性能更优;深度高斯过程在多数指标上表现较差。所有混合模型均优于纯机器学习模型,表现出对数据稀缺的鲁棒性。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Critical heat flux is a key quantity in boiling system modeling due to its impact on heat transfer and component temperature and performance. This study investigates the development and validation of an uncertainty-aware hybrid modeling approach that combines machine learning with physics-based models in the prediction of critical heat flux in nuclear reactors for cases of dryout. Two empirical correlations, Biasi and Bowring, were employed with three machine learning uncertainty quantification techniques: deep neural network ensembles, Bayesian neural networks, and deep Gaussian processes. A pure machine learning model without a base model served as a baseline for comparison. This study examines the performance and uncertainty of the models under both plentiful and limited training data scenarios using parity plots, uncertainty distributions, and calibration curves. The results indicate that the Biasi hybrid deep neural network ensemble achieved the most favorable performance (with a mean absolute relative error of 1.846% and stable uncertainty estimates), particularly in the plentiful data scenario. The Bayesian neural network models showed slightly higher error and uncertainty but superior calibration. By contrast, deep Gaussian process models underperformed by most metrics. All hybrid models outperformed pure machine learning configurations, demonstrating resistance against data scarcity.

临界热流混合建模不确定性量化核工程

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