将AI看作意见仲裁者，研究它如何影响群体观点演化
Extending the Hegselmann-Krause Model of Opinion Dynamics to include AI Oracles
- 用AI聚合群体意见作为新信息源来更新个体观点
- 仅依赖AI时观点会全部收敛到一致值；同时有真实值时则最终趋近真实值
- 即使部分人不知真实值，只要所有人都能访问AI，仍可实现共识
赫格塞尔曼-克劳斯（Hegselmann-Krause, HK）意见动态模型描述了个体在社群中如何根据他人意见及对真实值T的了解来调整自身观点。本文将该模型扩展，引入一个由人工智能（AI）驱动的‘仲裁者’，其功能是平均社区成员的意见。基于代理的模拟表明：（1）若个体仅能获取仲裁者的意见（而非真实值T），并在更新观点时采纳仲裁者意见，则所有观点将收敛至同一数值；（2）若所有个体同时拥有对真实值T的访问权，则所有观点最终都将趋近于真实值T，但仲裁者的存在可能延缓收敛速度；（3）当仅有部分个体知晓真实值时，观点可能无法收敛至真实值，但在特定条件下，全体成员均可访问仲裁者时，仍可保证观点收敛至真实值；（4）无论仲裁者仅接收已知真实值者的意见，还是接收全体成员的意见，对平均观点与真实值之间的偏差影响均不显著。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
The Hegselmann-Krause (HK) model of opinion dynamics describes how opinions held by individuals in a community change over time in response to the opinions of others and their access to the true value, T, to which these opinions relate. Here, I extend the simple HK model to incorporate an Artificially Intelligent (AI) Oracle that averages the opinions of members of the community. Agent-based simulations show that (1) if individuals only have access to the Oracle (and not T), and incorporate the Oracle's opinion as they update their opinions, then all opinions will converge on a common value; (2) in contrast, if all individuals also have access to T, then all opinions will ultimately converge to T, but the presence of an Oracle may delay the time to convergence; (3) if only some individuals have access to T, opinions may not converge to T, but under certain conditions, universal access to the Oracle will guarantee convergence to T; and (4) whether or not the Oracle only accesses the opinions of individuals who have access to T, or whether it accesses the opinions of everyone in the community, makes no marked difference to the extent to which the average opinion differs from T.
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