用物理信息神经网络求解疫情控制最短消除时间与最优疫苗策略
Physics-Informed Neural Networks for Optimal Vaccination Plan in SIR Epidemic Models
- 用物理信息神经网络直接嵌入疫情动力学求解消除时间的偏微分方程
- 在恒定感染与恢复率下,实现最小消除时间及对应最优疫苗控制
- 无需网格划分,计算高效,适合复杂疫情模型的快速优化设计
本文研究时间齐次的受控SIR模型中,使感染人群降至给定阈值以下并保持低于该阈值的最短消除时间。在感染与恢复率恒定的情况下,消除时间定义明确,可系统研究最优控制策略。本文采用物理信息神经网络(PINNs)求解描述消除时间的偏微分方程,并推导出相应的最优疫苗接种控制策略。PINN框架通过将动态规律嵌入神经网络损失函数,实现无网格求解。采用变量缩放方法确保了训练稳定性,数学分析表明该方法在此设置中有效。相比传统数值方法,该方法提供了高效的计算替代方案,可近似获得最小消除时间与最优控制策略。数值实验验证了该方法在计算最短消除时间和实现最优控制方面的有效性。本工作为时间齐次SIR模型提供了PINNs在流行病建模中的新颖应用,实现了数学理论与计算实践的结合。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
This work focuses on understanding the minimum eradication time for the controlled Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model in the time-homogeneous setting, where the infection and recovery rates are constant. The eradication time is defined as the earliest time the infectious population drops below a given threshold and remains below it. For time-homogeneous models, the eradication time is well-defined due to the predictable dynamics of the infectious population, and optimal control strategies can be systematically studied. We utilize Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) to solve the partial differential equation (PDE) governing the eradication time and derive the corresponding optimal vaccination control. The PINN framework enables a mesh-free solution to the PDE by embedding the dynamics directly into the loss function of a deep neural network. We use a variable scaling method to ensure stable training of PINN and mathematically analyze that this method is effective in our setting. This approach provides an efficient computational alternative to traditional numerical methods, allowing for an approximation of the eradication time and the optimal control strategy. Through numerical experiments, we validate the effectiveness of the proposed method in computing the minimum eradication time and achieving optimal control. This work offers a novel application of PINNs to epidemic modeling, bridging mathematical theory and computational practice for time-homogeneous SIR models.
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