arXiv:2502.20167cs.LGcs.CL2025-02

提出SDM激活函数,提升模型对不确定性的感知与可解释性。

Similarity-Distance-Magnitude Universal Verification

  • 在softmax基础上引入相似性、距离与幅度三重感知机制
  • 在分布外数据下仍保持稳定不确定性估计,支持选择性推理
  • 适合需要可信预测的场景,如大模型生成路由与多模型协作

我们通过在现有softmax输出幅度(决策边界)感知的基础上,引入相似性(正确预测的深度匹配)和训练分布距离感知,构建了SDM激活函数,显著增强对可减少的认知不确定性(epistemic uncertainty)的相对信号。该机制用于将输出映射到保留校准集上相关划分的人类可读统计量,通过在最终层SDM输出的类别条件经验累积分布函数(CDF)上学习简洁变换,获得预测条件下的不确定性估计。进一步将高概率区域划分为类别条件、区域特定的CDF,以获取类别条件准确率估计。这些来自SDM校准的不确定性估计在测试时分布偏移和分布外输入下表现稳健,能反映有效样本量,提供学习与数据划分过程中的不确定性,并适用于选择性分类及基于预测不确定性的额外测试时计算,如选择性大模型生成、路由与多模型/检索组合。最后,我们构建了具备不确定性感知验证与示例可解释性的SDM网络与大模型。相关代码已开源。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

We address the neural network robustness problem by adding Similarity (i.e., correctly predicted depth-matches into training)-awareness and Distance-to-training-distribution-awareness to the existing output Magnitude (i.e., decision-boundary)-awareness of the softmax function. The resulting SDM activation function provides strong signals of the relative epistemic (reducible) predictive uncertainty. We use this novel behavior to further address the complementary HCI problem of mapping the output to human-interpretable summary statistics over relevant partitions of a held-out calibration set. Estimates of prediction-conditional uncertainty are obtained via a parsimonious learned transform over the class-conditional empirical CDFs of the output of a final-layer SDM activation function. For decision-making and as an intrinsic model check, estimates of class-conditional accuracy are obtained by further partitioning the high-probability regions of this calibrated output into class-conditional, region-specific CDFs. The uncertainty estimates from SDM calibration are remarkably robust to test-time distribution shifts and out-of-distribution inputs; incorporate awareness of the effective sample size; provide estimates of uncertainty from the learning and data splitting processes; and are well-suited for selective classification and conditional branching for additional test-time compute based on the predictive uncertainty, as for selective LLM generation, routing, and composition over multiple models and retrieval. Finally, we construct SDM networks, LLMs with uncertainty-aware verification and interpretability-by-exemplar as intrinsic properties. We provide open-source software implementing these results.

不确定性估计大模型可信性可解释性鲁棒性

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