arXiv:2502.20260cs.LG2025-02ICML被引 8

深度表格式模型在时间数据上表现差,本文提出新训练方法和时序嵌入提升性能。

Understanding the Limits of Deep Tabular Methods with Temporal Shift

  • 改进训练协议,用随机划分验证集减少时间偏差
  • 引入傅里叶级数嵌入,有效捕捉周期与趋势特征
  • 适合处理随时间变化的结构化数据任务

深度表格式模型在独立同分布数据上表现优异,但在存在时间趋势和周期模式的时序分布偏移下性能显著下降。本文探究其失败原因,发现现有基于时间顺序划分验证集的方法存在偏差。我们提出新训练协议,通过减少训练数据与测试时间的滞后并降低验证偏差,显著提升泛化能力。进一步分析表明,这些模型难以捕捉关键的周期与趋势信息。为此,我们引入一种基于傅里叶级数展开的即插即用时序嵌入方法,实现对时序模式的自适应学习。实验表明,该嵌入结合改进训练协议,构建了更有效且鲁棒的时序表格式数据学习框架。

原文摘要 · Abstract (English)

Deep tabular models have demonstrated remarkable success on i.i.d. data, excelling in a variety of structured data tasks. However, their performance often deteriorates under temporal distribution shifts, where trends and periodic patterns are present in the evolving data distribution over time. In this paper, we explore the underlying reasons for this failure in capturing temporal dependencies. We begin by investigating the training protocol, revealing a key issue in how model selection performs. While existing approaches use temporal ordering for splitting validation set, we show that even a random split can significantly improve model performance. By minimizing the time lag between training data and test time, while reducing the bias in validation, our proposed training protocol significantly improves generalization across various methods. Furthermore, we analyze how temporal data affects deep tabular representations, uncovering that these models often fail to capture crucial periodic and trend information. To address this gap, we introduce a plug-and-play temporal embedding method based on Fourier series expansion to learn and incorporate temporal patterns, offering an adaptive approach to handle temporal shifts. Our experiments demonstrate that this temporal embedding, combined with the improved training protocol, provides a more effective and robust framework for learning from temporal tabular data.

深度学习时序数据表格式模型嵌入方法

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