超紧凑模型UltraSTF,高效预测时空数据,参数量不足0.2%却性能领先。
UltraSTF: Ultra-Compact Model for Large-Scale Spatio-Temporal Forecasting
- 用形状库注意力机制捕捉周期内时间依赖,提升模式学习能力。
- 在LargeST基准上性能达顶尖水平,参数仅需第二名的0.2%。
- 适合资源受限场景下的大规模时空预测任务。
时空数据广泛存在于交通监控、金融交易和网约车需求等实际应用中,属于高维多变量时间序列的特殊情形。这类数据需要计算高效的模型,并可通过通道独立策略应用单变量预测方法。近期提出的SparseTSF是一种有竞争力的单变量预测模型,利用周期性聚焦跨周期动态,实现了模型规模与预测性能之间的帕累托前沿优化。然而,其在时空数据上的表现受限于对周期内时间依赖关系的捕捉不足。为此,我们提出UltraSTF,结合跨周期预测组件与超紧凑形状库组件。该模型通过形状库组件的注意力机制高效捕捉时间序列中的重复模式,显著增强了对周期内动态的学习能力。UltraSTF在LargeST基准上达到当前最优性能,同时参数量少于次优方法的0.2%,进一步扩展了现有方法的帕累托前沿。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
Spatio-temporal data, prevalent in real-world applications such as traffic monitoring, financial transactions, and ride-share demands, represents a specialized case of multivariate time series characterized by high dimensionality. This high dimensionality necessitates computationally efficient models and benefits from applying univariate forecasting approaches through channel-independent strategies. SparseTSF, a recently proposed competitive univariate forecasting model, leverages periodicity to achieve compactness by focusing on cross-period dynamics, extending the Pareto frontier in terms of model size and predictive performance. However, it underperforms on spatio-temporal data due to limited capture of intra-period temporal dependencies. To address this limitation, we propose UltraSTF, which integrates a cross-period forecasting component with an ultra-compact shape bank component. Our model efficiently captures recurring patterns in time series using the attention mechanism of the shape bank component, significantly enhancing its capability to learn intra-period dynamics. UltraSTF achieves state-of-the-art performance on the LargeST benchmark while utilizing fewer than 0.2% of the parameters required by the second-best methods, thereby further extending the Pareto frontier of existing approaches.
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