技术降本会引发去中介化,但何时发生取决于成本高低。
Flattening Supply Chains: When do Technology Improvements lead to Disintermediation?
- 构建三方博弈模型:供应商、中介、消费者,分析技术进步对中间环节的影响。
- 当生产成本过高或过低时,消费者将绕过中介直接使用技术。
- 中介虽提升整体福利,却独占收益,可能提高或降低内容质量。
在数字经济中,技术革新降低了高质量内容的生产成本。例如,生成式AI工具降低了内容创作者的制作成本,也降低了消费者获取内容的成本。这种变化可能导致去中介化,即消费者直接使用技术,跳过中间平台。本文通过一个包含中介、生产技术供应商和消费者的博弈模型,研究技术进步导致去中介化的条件。结果表明,当生产成本过高或过低时,去中介化必然发生。进一步分析发现,虽然中介能提升社会福利,但其自身攫取全部收益,且其存在可能提升或降低内容质量。此外,供应商之间的竞争程度及中介收费结构也影响去中介化程度。研究为评估生产技术变革对中间环节存续及其对数字经济发展的影响提供了理论基础。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
In the digital economy, technological innovations make it cheaper to produce high-quality content. For example, generative AI tools reduce costs for creators who develop content to be distributed online, but can also reduce production costs for the users who consume that content. These innovations can thus lead to disintermediation, since consumers may choose to use these technologies directly, bypassing intermediaries. To investigate when technological improvements lead to disintermediation, we study a game with an intermediary, suppliers of a production technology, and consumers. First, we show disintermediation occurs whenever production costs are too high or too low. We then investigate the consequences of disintermediation for welfare and content quality at equilibrium. While the intermediary is welfare-improving, the intermediary extracts all gains to social welfare and its presence can raise or lower content quality. We further analyze how disintermediation is affected by the level of competition between suppliers and the intermediary's fee structure. More broadly, our results take a step towards assessing how production technology innovations affect the survival of intermediaries and impact the digital economy.
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