用高斯过程加速电网仿真,减少98%以上计算量
Gaussian process surrogate model to approximate power grid simulators -- An application to the certification of a congestion management controller
- 用高斯过程建模电网仿真器,结合自适应残差不确定性项
- 在非高斯行为下仍保持98%以上仿真省略率
- 适合电力系统安全验证与控制器认证场景
随着电网数字化,物理方程难以准确描述网络行为,需依赖真实但耗时的仿真器。涉及大量场景的安全验证等数值实验因计算成本过高而难以实施。一种常用方法是利用机器学习构建仿真器的代理模型,从而在快速评估的代理模型上进行实验。高斯过程(GPs)因其灵活性、数据高效性及可解释性成为主流选择,其概率特性可同时提供预测与不确定性量化(UQ)。然而,电网仿真器常违背GP的高斯假设,导致性能下降。为此,本文提出在UQ中引入自适应残差不确定性项,使GP即使在非高斯行为下仍保持高精度与可靠性。该方法成功应用于拥堵管理控制器的功能认证,避免了超过98%的仿真运行。
原文摘要 · Abstract (English)
With the digitalization of power grids, physical equations become insufficient to describe the network's behavior, and realistic but time-consuming simulators must be used. Numerical experiments, such as safety validation, that involve simulating a large number of scenarios become computationally intractable. A popular solution to reduce the computational burden is to learn a surrogate model of the simulator with Machine Learning (ML) and then conduct the experiment directly on the fast-to-evaluate surrogate model. Among the various ML possibilities for building surrogate models, Gaussian processes (GPs) emerged as a popular solution due to their flexibility, data efficiency, and interpretability. Their probabilistic nature enables them to provide both predictions and uncertainty quantification (UQ). This paper starts with a discussion on the interest of using GPs to approximate power grid simulators and fasten numerical experiments. Such simulators, however, often violate the GP's underlying Gaussian assumption, leading to poor approximations. To address this limitation, an approach that consists in adding an adaptive residual uncertainty term to the UQ is proposed. It enables the GP to remain accurate and reliable despite the simulator's non-Gaussian behaviors. This approach is successfully applied to the certification of the proper functioning of a congestion management controller, with over 98% of simulations avoided.
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